If you’re anything like me, one of your favorite things about gambling are the earned perks that come along with running money through a machine.
Normally when you hear casino teams or even players themselves discussing those casino offers or comps, you’ll hear them use the term “ADT.”
As you probably know by now, ADT stands for average daily theoretical. Basically, this is the dollar amount that the casino can bet on winning from you each gaming day you come to a casino property to try your luck.
What you may not be familiar with is a second term, average daily worth, or ADW for short.
ADW, just like ADT, is a metric that various casino industry practitioners deploy to evaluate a player. Unlike ADT, ADW provides a more holistic view of a player.
To provide a better understanding of the difference between the two standard casino equations, we invited John Janicky to help break it down. John is a bonafide casino professional, not to mention one of the few executives that has paid his dues and proved his skills by working his way from the front lines (valet stand) to the corporate c-suite. Before hitting the upper echelons of the organization chart, John also spent some time serving as a property host. We’re going to have a full feature about his impressive career trajectory a little later on.
Before we jump into the pot of alphabet soup, I think it’s important to share a little more context about this new character in our casino stories. I haven’t always been so upfront with asking for things at properties. It took working with John and hearing him talk about players earning comps to realize I was probably leaving money on the table at the properties that I frequented.
For the almost two years that we worked together, I would hear John talk about better ways to serve players, the importance of rectifying perks against actual play, and how to smooth things over when things go south. Before working with him, I had a misguided understanding of how perks are bestowed and what exactly I could start asking for. UNbeknownst to me, I simply had to make the ask because of the two magical numbers associated with my name – ADW and ADT.
Courtney Carr (FTS): What is ADT – Average Daily Theoretical?
John Janicky (JJ): It is the average amount the casino expects to win from you each day you gamble – not what you actually win or lose. Since casinos can’t predict your actual results, they evaluate your worth based on your theoretical loss, which is calculated using factors such as average bet, hours played, decisions per hour and hold percentage.
I always think about it this way – the casino doesn’t know whether you’re going to win or lose on any given trip, so it needs a consistent and objective way to value your play. ADT provides that consistency and is one of the primary metrics used to determine future offers, comps and player reinvestment.
FTS: What is ADW – Average Daily Worth?
JJ: ADW is a player valuation metric that typically looks at the greater of a player’s theoretical loss or their actual loss, often adjusted by a percentage of loss (commonly around 40%), to determine a more complete measure of player worth. ADW is primarily used by database marketing teams when evaluating players for direct mail, offers, and reinvestment strategies.
ADW provides another lens beyond theoretical win, especially for certain segments of table game players who may have lower theoretical values compared to their actual casino worth.
FTS: Can you elaborate on that a little more for our table games players?
JJ: Table game players can sometimes be challenging to value because their theoretical loss may not fully reflect their impact on the business. ADW helps normalize player value by considering additional factors* and can provide a better understanding of how much the casino should invest back into that player. *We will break down these additional factors below.
The reason table players often benefit from ADW is not necessarily that their theoretical is wrong, it is that slot theoretical is usually easier to calculate and more stable because of volume and predictable hold, which table play has more variability due to skill level, game type, speed of play and rating accuracy to name a few.
FTS: Could those additional factors be non-gaming outlets or services?
JJ: It really depends on the operator and the property’s analytics maturity. Many larger operators have evolved beyond traditional ADW by aggregating both gaming and non-gaming revenue, along with the associated costs, to calculate a customer’s true profitability and overall value to the enterprise. In those organizations, restaurant, spa, hotel, entertainment, and other amenity spend can absolutely influence how a guest is valued and marketed.
Smaller properties, or those with less integrated technology and analytics, often still rely primarily on gaming metrics like ADW and theoretical win. In those cases, non-gaming spend may be considered for discretionary decisions by hosts, but it typically isn’t incorporated into the core ADW calculation.
FTS: Which casino departments typically use ADW over ADT?
JJ: Unlike ADT, which is a metric commonly used by Player Development teams on the floor to evaluate a guest’s current play and relationship value, ADW is more commonly utilized by database marketing teams for segmentation, modeling, and determining direct marketing offers.
FTS: Is there anything else players should know about ADW?
JJ: Players are always looking for ways to maximize their gaming experience and get the most value from casino offers and comps. The biggest thing players can do to help ensure consistent offers is to provide consistent play patterns over time. You often hear guests say, “I lost $5,000, so the casino should send me better offers,” or “Why did my offer drop?” The reality is casinos are not only looking at the results of one visit. They are trying to understand a player’s expected value over time. A player who loses $5,000 on one short visit may actually be worth less than a player who consistently generates $2,000 in theoretical loss over multiple visits. The second player provides the casino with a more predictable and sustainable value.
FTS: Any tales of caution for players when it comes to their earned offers?
JJ: One challenge casinos sometimes create for themselves is over-incentivizing players with too many offers. For example, take a player who traditionally visits once or twice a week and has a consistent pattern of play. The casino may decide it needs additional volume and begins sending more promotions to encourage more visits. The player may respond by visiting more frequently, but if the additional trips result in shorter sessions, lower average bets, or more inconsistent play, the player’s overall value metrics can decline. Over time, this can result in lower offers because the casino’s understanding of the player’s worth has changed.
FTS: Do you have any last advice for players?
JJ: The best strategy for players is not to chase offers or focus on a single winning or losing trip. Instead, focus on playing within your budget, providing accurate ratings, and maintaining consistent play patterns. Casinos reward predictable value, and players who understand that relationship are more likely to receive consistent offers over time.
FTS: In closing, it sounds like ADW is more of a property by property evaluation while ADT is a standard, universally accepted equation. Is this true?
JJ: It really depends on the operator and the property’s analytics maturity. There isn’t a universal answer – ADW is largely driven by each operator’s systems, data strategy, and philosophy around customer valuation.
