The NBA All-Star festivities are behind us, and the Trade Deadline is a thing of the past. With that, teams will be gearing up for an exciting second half of the season, focusing their efforts on playoff runs and more personal accolades.
The NBA futures board offers some valuable insights on what to expect moving forward. We’re breaking down all the odds to see where the money is flowing as we race toward an exciting conclusion to the regular season.
SGA: The NBA MVP
One NBA trend has stood the test of time and remains a constant again in 2025-26. Recently, we’ve seen a string of back-to-back winners. It started way back in 2005-06, when Steve Nash one his second straight MVP. Since then, we’ve seen it five more times. Nikola Jokic won the award in 2021 and 2022, Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2019 and 2020, Steph Curry in 2015 and 2016, with LeBron James accomplishing the feat twice. Now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander appears to be the latest player to win back-to-back MVPs.
The Thunder guard enters the unofficial second half of the season as a -190 favorite to reclaim his banner as the NBA MVP. SGA is averaging north of 30.0 points per game for the fourth straight season, and is on the verge of tying the most consecutive 20-point games in league history. More importantly, he continues to lead OKC to glory, with the Thunder once again in championship form.
The next closest player to Gilgeous-Alexander is Jokic. Still, injuries have been a factor in Jokic’s production, and his +300 price tag leaves a substantive gap in terms of implied probability. With no one closer than +1500, this will be a two-horse race to the finish line. Clearly, the MVP award is SGA’s to lose.
DPOY and ROY Betting
Sadly, the MVP race appears to be the closest award race to monitor down the stretch. There are two clear frontrunners in Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year betting, implying there won’t be much contention in the second half.
Victor Wembanyama is the odds-on favorite to claim the first DPOY award of his career. The Spurs’ franchise cornerstone is a two-time BLK award winner, but his getting more credit for his all-around defensive presence. As it stands, Wembanyama is priced as -310 chalk to claim the award at the end of the season.
Similarly, Cooper Flagg is a staggering -750 to be named the 2025-26 Rookie of the Year. Flagg has been the line bright spot on an otherwise dismal Mavericks team, leading the team in scoring (20.4 points per game), while sitting second in assists (4.1) and rebounds (6.6). After the Mavs shipped off whatever they could at the deadline, Flagg will have an even bigger platform to continue his contributions.
NBA Finals Betting
That one-sided action is also reflected in the NBA Finals betting. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the odds-on favorite to repeat as champions, but the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs are also commanding a significant portion of the action.
With less than 30 games to go in the regular season, the Thunder are prohibitive +135 favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy. While the prices have fluctuated, OKC has been at the top of the board since the outset of the season.
Denver has seen a more recent surge, most likely tied to Jokic’s return to the lineup. Heading into this week’s action, the Nuggets have the second-shortest price, currently listed at +600. Close behind them, the Spurs are listed at +1200, thanks to the development of their young nucleus.
What About the Eastern Conference?
While the top three betting teams are in the West, the Eastern Conference is guaranteed representation in the NBA Finals. The East is a wide-open landscape where anything can happen, but bettors are starting to gravitate toward four teams.
Led by the Cleveland Cavaliers (+1200), the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, and Detroit Pistons, all priced at +1300, are the only teams listed lower than +4000. Given the parity amongst the top four contenders, there’s an argument to be made that betting positions on all four teams are warranted. From there, bettors can hedge their bets throughout the playoffs to virtually guarantee a profit.
Betting Inferences Based on the Current Futures Board
Based on the current state of the futures board, we can make some pretty reliable inferences. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is perpetuating the recent betting trend of players going back-to-back as MVPs. Victor Wembanyama is finally getting credit for his elite defensive play and is poised to claim the first DPOY of his career. Cooper Flagg has also lived up to the hype and is the clear frontrunner in Rookie of the Year betting.
A more wholesome perspective reveals that the Thunder are still viewed as the best team in the NBA. Their stiffest competition will come from within the division, with the Nuggets emerging as another favorite to reclaim their mantle as champions.
The Eastern Conference won’t go down without a fight, but it appears increasingly likely that the Cavs, Celtics, Knicks, or Pistons will represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals.
Wherever your allegiances align, make sure you’re insulating your betting position along the way. We can’t take anything for granted, especially with 30 games to play.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
