Casinos, like any business, are there in the end to generate profit for the owner. But when you walk into a casino, is there a dollar amount they’re targeting you for?
How much do they expect you to lose each visit?
Collins
There isn’t one monolithic number they’re expecting, so there’s no one correct answer per se, at least when it comes to a precise dollar amount.
Instead, casinos segment customers, as many businesses do, based on their interests and based on their historical budget. Those segments translate into the differences we see in offers when we get our monthly mailer or casino offer email.
At a higher level, if you have a play history with a casino, their assumption is whatever that average play level has been, and the expected loss that comes with it, is what they presume will happen if their offer is successful in generating another visit.
If your average expected loss is $100, they presume that offer will generate another $100. If your average is $500, then that’s what they’re expecting will happen.
Note, however, we say (as you did here) “expected loss.” That’s because on any given casino visit you can get on a good run or you can take a bath. Expected loss, also called theoretical loss, is the amount, based on the size and number of wagers and the house edge of the game, will determine what the loss would be in a perfect scenario.
But the randomness of slots will mean it can go in all sorts of directions on a single visit. That doesn’t matter to most casinos. They know the more visits, and the longer the amount of play over time, it’ll get closer to that expectation.
But note that if you lose your budget fast and leave, the “expected loss” on that play will be lower than the actual loss because you swung bad. And that will water down your average. So this is one of the reasons why we discourage players, say, from taking big swings with their free play, but instead play it like cash.
Have a question? Submit yours here!
