Major golf tournaments carry the most weight. The tournaments themselves bring out all of the premier golfers in the world, and the betting market is always rife with action. That’s the case again for the 126th U.S. Open, with the biggest names descending on Shinnecock Hills for a shot at the ultimate PGA Trophy.
Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite once again, and there’s been no shortage of action leading up to Thursday’s opening round. We’re evaluating the state of the futures market while sharing the key betting perspectives worth considering ahead of this weekend’s action.
Scheffler Supremacy
Scottie Scheffler casts a big shadow, particularly in major tournaments. The American was the odds-on favorite in each of the two preceding majors and is once again the chalky pick to win at Shinnecock.
As BetMGM Senior Trader Matt Wall succinctly puts it, “In the 126th US Open’s return to Shinnecock, world number 1 Scottie Scheffler has been getting plenty of love from bettors, especially at a more attractive price point than we saw at the first two majors of 2026.”
Scheffler has failed to recapture his 2025 glory this season. He carded a respectable -2 at the PGA Championship, finishing seven back of Aaron Rai. Scheffler made a late-tournament run at The Masters, still coming up one shot short of Rory McIlroy for the title. With that, BetMGM has moved Scheffler’s price down ahead of the U.S. Open.
Formerly a +400 favorite, the four-time major winner closed at a more tantalizing +550. As expected, that precipitated a flood of betting action, with Scheffler commanding a whopping 24.7% of the handle on just 14.1% of the tickets. Sharp and public bettors alike are hammering him to complete the career Grand Slam.
Still, Scheffler’s best finish at the tournament was a T2 placement back in 2022. Since then, he’s finished third (2023), T41 (2024), and T7 (2025). If he wants to get off the schneid, Scheffler is going to need to overcome his recent performances at the U.S. Open.
McIlroy Magic
As is typically the case, Rory McIlroy is priced just behind Scheffler with the second-shortest odds. Like his American counterpart, though, McIlroy’s odds have increased in advance of tee off. The Northern Irishman went from +900 to +1100, signaling investment in other golfers. More concerningly, McIlroy’s ticket count (6.5%) exceeds his handle (6.2%), implying that he’s become a public fixture more so than a sharp one.
McIlroy has been a less active participant on the PGA Tour this season, appearing injust one tournament since the PGA Championship. He may be fresh, but the sharpest bettors are still avoiding him as a top candidate at Shinnecock.
European Bandwagon
Given the success of McIlroy and Rai at the first two majors, it’s not surprising to see bettors flock towards Europeans at this year’s tourney – a phenomenon acknowledged by BetMGM.
Matt Walsh notes, “Following the recent successes of Rory McIlroy and Aaron Rai, our customers are jumping on the European bandwagon—Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick are both seeing strong backing. Normally a fan favorite, Bryson DeChambeau’s missed cuts at both majors this year seem to have cooled the enthusiasm with significant action on Bryson to miss the cut. Last time the US Open was held at Shinnecock in 2018, no one finished under par. Customers clearly remember just how brutal this course can be.”
Matt Fitzpatrick has seen the sharpest decline in his betting odds, shrinking from a +10000 underdog to a +2000 contender. The Briton finished second at the RBC Canadian Open, carding a -15 north of the border. With a T18 finish at The Masters and a T14 at the PGA Championship, Fitzpatrick will be ready to deliver at Shinnecock.
Similarly, Tommy Fleetwood’s odds match what we’ve seen from Fitzpatrick. Fleetwood has gone from +4000 to +2000 on the strength of 4.9% of the tickets and 5.4% of the handle. The Briton is riding a hot hand, finishing T11 at the RBC Canadian Open and T4 at the Memorial Tournament, momentum that should carry him into the upper-echelon of the U.S. Open.
Final Thoughts
Shinnecock Hills is an unforgiving course. Known as one of the more grueling tracks in the country, Shinnecock demands execution in all facets of the game. From the tee box to the green and everything in between, there are no easy shots at this year’s U.S. Open. Brooks Koepka was the 2018 U.S. Open Champion at this course, finishing with a +1 score to finish one stroke clear of Fleetwood.
Don’t expect the early-round leaders to maintain their advantage on Saturday. The course will be set up to punish golfers for misses, and only a handful of professionals can offset those challenges with other parts of their game.
Bettors can maximize value with a strong portfolio of mid-range options. It will come down to which golfers perform best on Saturday and Sunday, but don’t expect many low scores.
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