It’s quarterfinal time, and New Year’s Day promises high drama across four major bowl games. As we dive into each matchup, we focus on the spreads, the styles, and the keys to victory for these elite programs. Let’s dissect the action like a seasoned handicapper.
Peach Bowl: Arizona State vs. Texas
- Spread: Texas -12.5
- Total: 51.5
We kick off the day with the Peach Bowl, where Big 12 champion Arizona State takes on last year’s Big 12 kingpin, Texas. The Longhorns are the national championship favorites and come in with a hefty 13.5-point spread. Texas handled its business in the opening round, easily covering another double-digit line. Can they do it again here?
The Sun Devils, riding a six-game winning streak, are no strangers to finding and exploiting defensive weaknesses, thanks to the creative play-calling of head coach Kenny Dillingham. Running back Cam Skattebo, a 255-pound bruiser, is the centerpiece of their attack. He’s logged 180+ scrimmage yards in seven of 12 games this year. Texas’s defense has been solid, but they’ve shown vulnerabilities against the run in high-pressure moments. If Arizona State can strike first and control the clock, they might hang around longer than the line suggests.
Pick: Arizona State +12.5 & UNDER 51.5: Texas has the firepower to blow this game wide open, but with Arizona State’s interior toughness and Skattebo’s punishing style, this one could trend under the total, and the Sun Devils are worth a long look against the spread.
CFP Matchup Pages: Penn St. vs. Boise St. | Texas vs. Arizona St. | Ohio St. vs. Oregon | Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State
- Spread: Penn State -11.5
- Total: 53.5
Boise State, the Mountain West champion and No. 3 seed, faces Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, where the Nittany Lions enter as double-digit favorites. This line feels a touch inflated, especially considering Boise State’s track record of rising to the occasion.
The Broncos boast one of the nation’s top running backs in Ashton Jeanty, who’s closing in on Barry Sanders’ all-time single-season rushing record. Penn State, meanwhile, brings a staunch run defense that limited SMU to just 1.6 yards per carry in the opening round. But Boise’s offensive line is far superior to SMU’s, and Jeanty has proven capable of wearing down even elite defenses.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has been efficient but not explosive. This matchup could hinge on whether Boise can control the tempo with its run game and force Penn State into third-and-long situations.
Pick: Boise State -10.5 & UNDER 49.5: A lower-scoring game favors Boise State, and the underdog Broncos have the potential to keep this much closer than the spread suggests.
CFP Power Rankings: Quarterbacks | Coaches | Offenses | Defenses
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
- Spread: Ohio State -2.5
- Total: 55.5
The Rose Bowl delivers a rematch of Titans as Oregon and Ohio State clash. The Buckeyes are slim 2.5-point favorites, setting the stage for what could be the most evenly matched game of the day.
Oregon’s offense, led by Dillan Gabriel, must navigate one of the nation’s top defenses. Ohio State has been suffocating against the pass, but Oregon’s balanced attack presents a unique challenge. Conversely, the Buckeyes’ offense runs through quarterback Will Howard, who must avoid turnovers against a Ducks defense that thrives on creating chaos.
This game likely comes down to who wins the turnover battle and executes in the red zone.
Pick: Oregon +2.5: Expect a chess match throughout, with Oregon potentially having the edge in a shootout scenario. The line reflects the razor-thin margins in this one, so live betting opportunities could emerge based on momentum swings.
Transfer Portal: Top 10 Overall | Top 10 CFP Game-Changers | Top 10 Enterered Over the Weekend
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Georgia
- Spread: Georgia -1.5
- Total: 45.5
The nightcap features Georgia, the reigning SEC champion, facing Notre Dame in a clash of contrasting styles. Georgia is a 1.5-point favorite, but Notre Dame’s defense could make this one far tighter than expected.
Notre Dame has held opponents to under 50% completions and racked up 19 interceptions this season. They’ll have a shot to pull the upset if they can pressure Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton into mistakes. Offensively, the Irish lean on a mobile quarterback in Riley Leonard, who isn’t Jalen Milroe but offers a similar dual-threat challenge. Georgia’s defense has sometimes struggled against quarterbacks who can extend plays, and this game could come down to who wins the battle in the trenches.
Pick: Notre Dame +1.5: While the Bulldogs are the more talented team, Notre Dame’s opportunistic defense and ground-and-pound offense make them a live underdog. This one feels destined to be a fourth-quarter game.
Go Long with SportsGrid’s Free Weekly College Football Game Picks and College Football Player Prop Bets!
Final Thoughts
Handicapping these quarterfinal matchups comes down to finding value in the spreads and totals. For double-digit dogs like Arizona State and Boise State, their styles give them a puncher’s chance to cover. Meanwhile, closer matchups like the Rose and Sugar Bowls are primed for drama, with underdogs Notre Dame and Oregon offering upset potential. New Year’s Eve and Day are set to deliver fireworks—buckle up.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
