The College Football Playoff has been nothing short of sensational. Through two rounds, our senses and gambling bones have been tickled, with non-stop action and unexpected upsets. Surely, that continues in Thursday’s Fiesta Bowl, as the Miami (FL) Hurricanes look to continue their unexpected quest to the National Championship versus the Ole Miss Rebels.
We’ve done the legwork for you, and are breaking down our favorite picks ahead of kick-off!
Where to Watch (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels
- Stadium: State Farm Stadium
- Location: Glendale, AZ
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
(10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds
- Spread: MIA -3 (-115) | MISS +3 (-105)
- Total: Over 52.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
- Moneyline: MIA -165 | MISS +140
Defense has been the name of the game for the Hurricanes, but they could be forced out of their comfort zone against the Rebels. Ole Miss operates one of the most prolific units in the country, a strength that will be on full display at State Farm Stadium.
Trinidad Chambliss has been the architect of the Rebels’ success. Taking over early in the campaign, Chambliss has led Ole Miss to an 11-1 record while averaging 261.4 passing yards per game. More impressively, he has eclipsed 300 passing yards in four of his last five, averaging 327.4 passing yards per game. That efficient, high-volume approach is sure to continue versus Miami.
While Miami has stood up well against the pass, we’ve seen cracks in its armor more recently. The Buckeyes threw for 287 yards last time out, marking an increase relative to normal production. Likewise, Texas A&M churned out 237 yards in the first round, deviating from its run-first approach. That 263.5-yard average represents a significant increase relative to Miami’s 176.7-yard season-long average.
We predict Ole Miss will maintain its pass-heavy approach in the Fiesta Bowl, backing the Hurricanes into a corner. Carson Beck will do his best to keep the Hurricanes competitive, but this is the Rebels’ game to lose. Ole Miss moneyline is the play.
Best Bet: Ole Miss +140
At different points this season, we’ve seen several Ole Miss pass-catchers step up to shoulder the offensive burden. Still, Harrison Wallace III has been the most consistent offensive contributor throughout the campaign. We’re betting the senior steps up again on Thursday night, blowing past his achievable receiving yards prop.
Wallace enters the Fiesta Bowl with a modest 54.5 receiving yard prop, a benchmark he has easily eclipsed in four of his last five outings. Moreover, he’s coming off his most dominant effort of the campaign, hauling in nine of 11 targets versus Georgia for 156 yards and a touchdown. Therein lies the biggest advantage in backing Wallace to show out. He leads the team in targets by a wide margin, earning 94 targets on the season and accounting for a 19.4% target share.
The Hurricanes were a stout defensive unit in the inferior ACC, but they’ve struggled to contain more prominent teams in the playoffs. Jeremiah Smith went off for 157 receiving yards in the quarterfinals, with Mario Craver recording 92 receiving yards in the opening round.
As we’ve seen, Miami doesn’t have the defensive faculties to limit top pass-catchers. Harrison Wallace will be the latest beneficiary in the College Football Playoffs. Conservative bettors can comfortably take the over on his prop, but we’re going more exotic, backing Wallace to reach at least 80 receiving yards in the Fiesta Bowl.
Best Bet: Harrison Wallace III to Record 80+ Receiving Yards +225
Fiesta Bowl Best Bets: (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels
- Ole Miss +140
- Harrison Wallace III to Record 80+ Receiving Yards +225
The Rebels enter the Fiesta Bowl as undeserving underdogs. The SEC representatives will be too much to handle for the Hurricanes, pointing toward another CFP upset. Additionally, we’re backing Harrison Wallace III to be an integral part of the Rebels’ attack. We’re betting he eclipses 80 receiving yards versus Miami.
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