The first round of the NCAA Tournament is where betting markets get the most action, and this year’s matchups bring plenty of intrigue. With sharp line movements, key betting trends, and public money flowing in, there’s no shortage of angles for bettors to exploit. Let’s break down the biggest insights from BetMGM for the first round.
First Four Previews: Best Bets | UNC-SD State | ASU-SFU | AU-MSMARY
Matchups with Significant Line Movement
- No. 10 New Mexico vs. No. 7 Marquette
- The line opened with Marquette as a 3.5-point favorite, but sharp money has pushed it slightly lower in some spots. New Mexico has been a popular pick among bettors looking for an upset, seeing 70% of tickets and 78% of handle on the Lobos covering the spread.
- The total has remained steady around 151.5, with 52% of bets coming in on the over, with 62% of the handle.
- The Lobos’ high-paced offense will look to exploit Marquette’s fatigue after their deep conference tournament run.
- No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri
- Missouri opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but public money on Drake has pushed it down to 5.5 at some books.
- Drake has been one of the most bet underdogs, with 85% of spread bets and 74% of the handle.
- Missouri’s defensive struggles could open the door for a lower-seeded upset here.
- No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon
- Oregon opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but sharp money has moved Liberty to +5.5 in most books.
- The under (140.5) is seeing 48% of the bets but 59% of the total handle, indicating some sharp money backing a defensive battle.
- Liberty has a slow tempo, which could frustrate Oregon’s offensive rhythm.
NCAA Bracket: Selection Sunday Winners & Losers | No. 1 Seeds | Top 10 KenPom Snubs | Top 10 NET Snubs
Key Public vs. Sharp Money Discrepancies
- No. 14 Lipscomb vs. No. 3 Iowa State
- Lipscomb has received 53% of spread bets at +13.5, but the handle leans towards Iowa State, seeing 63% of the money, suggesting sharp bettors are backing the Cyclones to cover.
- The total (143.5) has seen 89% of the handle on the under but only 11% on the over.
- No. 15 Bryant vs. No. 2 Michigan State
- Michigan State is a heavy 17.5-point favorite, but Bryant has drawn 63% of the spread bets as a big underdog.
- However, the moneyline bets vary greatly, with 95% of tickets on the Bryant moneyline but just 59% of the handle.
- The total (150.5) has seen a sharp split, with 75% of the handle on the under despite public money accounting for just 25% of tickets.
Live Dog Watch: Potential First-Round Upsets
- No. 13 Akron vs. No. 4 Arizona
- Arizona is favored by 14.5, but Akron has seen 95% of the spread bets, making them one of the most popular underdogs in the first round.
- Arizona’s inconsistent defense gives Akron a chance to keep this one close if they can hit threes early.
- No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 UConn
- UConn is a 4.5-point favorite, but the betting action is nearly split.
- Oklahoma has been strong against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, and UConn’s offense can struggle when facing defensive-minded teams.
- If the Sooners control the tempo, this could be a one-possession game late.
- No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU
- BYU is a 2.5-point favorite, but VCU’s ATS record as an underdog has drawn sharp money.
- The total (144.5) has seen more action on the under, likely due to VCU’s defensive style slowing the pace.
- If BYU can’t establish their perimeter game early, VCU could grind this into an upset bid.
Action on First-Round Totals
- No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 8 Mississippi State
- The total has hovered around 143.5, with some public money backing the under. The handle is seeing 91% of the money on a low scorer.
- Baylor’s three-point shooting will dictate whether this turns into a track meet or a defensive battle.
- No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan
- The total is set at 141.5, with early movement toward the over.
- Both teams play at a fast pace, making this one of the more appealing games for over bettors.
- No. 16 Norfolk State vs. No. 1 Florida
- Florida is a massive 28.5-point favorite, and while the spread action is closer to a split, the total (153.5) has drawn a significant lean on the under, with 69% of the handle.
- With Florida likely to control the tempo, there’s value in taking the under.
Best Bets for the First Round
- Drake (+6.5) vs. Missouri
- The sharp money is all over Drake, and Missouri’s defensive issues make them vulnerable to an upset. Drake is seeing 85% of tickets and 74% of the handle on them covering. The Bulldogs also have 93% of bets and 94% of dollars on them winning with a +220 moneyline.
- Under 140.5 – Liberty vs. Oregon
- The pace of play will be slow, and sharps are backing the under in what could be a grind-it-out matchup. 59% of the handle is on the under. A Liberty upset is also seeing action with 88% of tickets and 72% of handle on their +220 moneyline.
- Baylor (-1.5) vs. Mississippi State
- Baylor’s offense should be the difference in this tight 8-9 matchup. Bettors are hammering the under with 81% of tickets and 91% of the handle, taking below 143.5 points.
The first round of March Matchups always delivers surprises, and this year’s betting action suggests we’ll see a mix of upsets, covers, and totals drama. Keep an eye on line movement, sharp money trends, and potential live betting opportunities as the games tip-off.
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