The first two rounds of the 2026 college basketball tournament are in the books. It was a chalky finish to the weekend, but there were still a number of unexpected outcomes, close calls, and buzzer-beating madness.
Let’s recap the first two rounds, and see how the betting market has shifted as we gear up for the round of 16 this weekend.
First-Round Frenzy
It didn’t take long for the first upset to take place. TCU battled it out with Ohio State in the tournament-opening game, with the Horned Frogs installed as short +2.5 underdogs. The Buckeyes found themselves in an early hole, and despite their best efforts in the second-half, they came up short against their Big 12 foes.
Still, that was far from the most notable defeat of the opening round. That distinction belongs to the Wisconsin Badgers, who dropped a one-point loss to High Point in the fabled 12 vs. 5 showdown. In a close second, the Texas Longhorns stunned the BYU Cougars, easily romping their first-round opponent 79-71 as +2.5 underdogs. The Longhorns’ run started in the first-four, and their glass slippers haven’t fallen off just yet.
Duke’s Close Call
Inarguably, the closest call of the early action was Duke narrowly suriviving its tournament-opener versus Siena. The Saints led the Blue Devils at half, maintaining their modest edge until the waning moments. Duke relied on free throws to close the gap and close out Siena; however, they didn’t come close to covering the -27.5 spread in their 71-65 win.
Second-Round Chalk
There were fewer upsets in the Round of 32; however, the most notable upset of the weekend happened on Sunday.
The defending champion Florida Gators were sent packing, getting ousted by the ninth-ranked Iowa in the South bracket. Florida had become a staple of sharp support, but couldn’t find a way to tame the Hawkeyes’ offense. In doing so, Iowa sets up a round of 16 showdown versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who were nearly walked off the court in dramatic fashion.
Down two with a minute to play, the Cornhuskers had the ball in hand. Sam Hoiberg missed an easy two-point layup, but was bailed out by Rienk Mast who grabbed the offensive board and nailed the putback.
The Vanderbilt Commodores missed on a jumper with ten seconds to play, seemingly leaving Nebraska to seal its own fate. Braden Frager rushed the shot, leaving Vandy two seconds for its miracle comeback.Tyler Tanner put up a miracle shot, clanking twice off the hoop before bouncing harmlessly away.
Surely, Thursday’s showdown in Houston between Iowa and Nebraska will deliver an equally memorable result.
St. John’s Storms Off
Rick Pitino meshes with the tournament about as well as water settles with oil. Nevertheless, the St. John’s Red Storm coach is trying to exorcise those demons this year. Pitino got the result he was hoping for as the Johnnies bested Kansas in the second round.
St. John’s had built itself a comfortable lead, and appeared to be running away with the win. On the back of Darryn Peterson, the Jayhawks mounted a furious comeback to tie the game with seconds to play. The Red Storm inbounded from half, with Dylan Darling dribbling the ball through the Jayhawks’ porous defense before knocking back a buzzer-beater for the win.
The Johnnies have their work cut out for them, needing to get past top-ranked Duke on Friday to extend their tournament run.
Chalky Finish
Despite some of the madness, favorites went on an astounding 17-3 run straight up to close out the final two-plus days of the tournament. The Gators, the Gonzaga Bulldogs, and Virginia Cavaliers were the most notable seeds to falter, but the mayhem is sure to continue in the round of 16 and beyond.
Current Betting Landscape
Undoubtedly, these results have had a measurable impact on the betting market. Iowa and St. John’s have seen their National Championship odds improve to +3300 and +10000, respectively. Conversely, Texas has pulled off three stunning wins in a row, but is still a distant +20000 for this year’s crown.
At the top of the board, the three of the four heavyweights continue to dominate the market. With Florida’s exclusion, Michigan (+300), Arizona, (+320), and Duke (+420), remain the top betting options to claim this year’s banner.
The field has been trimmed to 16, but there are still three rounds to go before we crown this year’s champion. Stay sharp and keep your eyes on the betting boards to ensure this year’s March Matchups is a profitable endeavor!
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