The New York Knicks have staked themselves to a comfortable lead in the NBA Finals. The Knicks strutted into Frost Bank Center and stole Games 1 and 2 from the San Antonio Spurs. With the series shifting back to The Mecca of Basketball for Games 3 and 4, the Knicks have the opportunity to do something they haven’t done since 1973 – hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy on their home court.
The Spurs won’t go down without a fight, but this is New York’s series to lose. We’re assessing Game 3’s odds to see where the betting value lies on Monday night
Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3 Betting Line
Spread: SAS +1.5 (-110) | NYK -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: SAS +105 | NYK -125
Total: 215.5 Over (-115) | Under (-105)
Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3 Best Bets
The Spurs’ offense was able to break free in Game 2 on Friday night, but turnovers were a persistent issue, which ended up costing them the win. That’s akin to what we saw from San Antonio in the series opener, in which they turned the ball over 13 times in a 10-point loss. The Western Conference Champs need a more wholesome effort if they hope to climb back into this series. It should also precipitate a massive increase in scoring.
The Spurs are efficient with the ball in their hands – they just need to stop giving it away. They shot 47.4% from the field on Friday night, including 37.9% from distance. Additionally, they made it to the charity stripe for 27 free throws, albeit with a less impressive 70.3% conversion rate. That’s been their MO throughout the season, operating one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Factoring in fewer turnovers will result in more shot attempts, which should allow for a scoring spike at Madison Square Garden.
At the same time, New York has been up to its usual antics in the NBA Finals. The Knicks have been making it rain from distance, going 15-for-38 from three-point range on Friday night, matching their usual production from range. With that, they have gone north of 36 three-point attempts in three straight, averaging 39.0 shots per game across that stretch. More impressively, the Knicks are knocking down 38.5% of those shots, correlating with a 3-0 record against the spread.
The first two games of this series have stayed under the total by a substantive margin. The Knicks and Spurs combined for 200 points in the series opener, following that up with 209 points in Game 2. Both contests finished well short of the posted totals of 217.5. We’re betting that trend ends on Monday night, with Game 3 sailing over the shorter total.
Best Bets: Over 215.5
Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3 Player Prop
Victor Wenbanyama continues to carry the Spurs, but his supporting cast has fallen by the wayside versus the Knicks. San Antonio’s role players need to make more prominent contributions if they hope to stay alive. In that regard, we’re counting on Devin Vassell to make an impact versus the Knicks.
Vassell’s struggles date back to Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Over the last three games, the Spurs’ swingman is shooting just 35.3% from the field, including an icy 26.3% from three-point range. Despite those struggles, Vassell showed signs of coming to life in Game 2. He went 3-for-7 from distance, contributing to a vastly improved 44.4% field goal percentage. Considering he’s maintained his usual shot volume, we’re predicting a much more robust effort from Vassell at MSG.
The Spurs continue to ask a lot from Vassell. While he plays with an unrelenting edge on defense, he can also be counted upon to be a key player on offense. He averages the fourth-most shots per game on the team (11.3), with an effective field goal percentage of 54.7%. Those metrics have been consistent throughout the postseason, with Vassell averaging 11.3 shot attempts across his three-game cold streak.
San Antonio will continue to demand offensive production from Vassell in the NBA Finals, and we expect him to respond accordingly. Vassell’s point prop has taken a hit in Game 3, making him the ideal buy-low candidate. There’s plenty of value in backing him to go north of 11.5 points, but the premier bet worth making is backing Vassell to reach 15.
Best Bet: Devin Vassell to Record 15+ Points
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