The NCAA Tournament has whittled its field down to 16, and Thursday and Friday promise back-to-back slates of marquee matchups featuring bluebloods, power programs, and live underdogs. With tip-off fast approaching, BetMGM’s latest sportsbook insights give us a glimpse into how the betting public is attacking this round of 16 board — and where value might still be found.
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Most Bet Games: Public Flocks to Blueblood Matchups
Three games stand above the rest when it comes to ticket count:
- Maryland vs. Florida (-6.5)
- BYU vs. Alabama (-5.5)
- Arizona vs. Duke (-9.5)
The high-profile status of Florida, Alabama, and Duke — paired with their double-digit seeding edges — makes them public darlings. But with so much action piling onto favorites, this could be a pivotal round for sportsbooks.
Thursday Bet Guides: BYU-ALA | MD-FL | AZ-DUKE | ARK-TTU
Top Public Teams (By Ticket Count)
- Florida -6.5: Backed by 71% of tickets and 65% of the handle, Florida has seen consistent support since lines opened. They’re also tied to a highly bet total (157.5), showing the public expects them to score often and cover comfortably.
- Duke -9.5: Receiving 61% of bets and 69% of the money, Duke continues to be one of the most popular teams on the board. Their matchup with Arizona has the makings of a flashy blowout — or a dangerous trap.
- Michigan +9.5: Surprisingly, Michigan is the most popular dog to cover the spread (78% of tickets, 73% of handle). Their game vs. Auburn is one of the more lopsided matchups, but bettors are banking on a late cover or Cinderella bid.
Where the Money’s Going: Smart Bets or Risky Chases?
Looking at total handle (money wagered), bettors are aligning with favorites:
- Florida -6.5: 86% of total handle (despite only 44% of bets), indicating sharp or large wagers.
- Duke -9.5: 81% of the money, 36% of bets — another possible sharp-side.
- Alabama -5.5: 59% of handle, despite a near-even split in bet count (51% on Alabama).
Public perception and large stakes collide here, but we should not discount potential regression if underdogs hang around late.
Totals: Everyone’s Betting the Over
Every round of 16 matchup is seeing a majority of total bets come in on the Over, which is rare this late in the tournament when defensive intensity ramps up. The top three most bet totals:
- BYU vs. Alabama – 175.5 (62% of bets, 75% of handle on Over)
- Maryland vs. Florida – 157.5 (79% of bets, 94% of handle)
- Arizona vs. Duke – 153.5 (86% of bets, 80% of handle)
Bettors are expecting fireworks across the board, especially with offensive-heavy teams like Alabama and Florida in play.
Popular Underdogs to Win Outright
If you’re eyeing upsets, these are the dogs bettors love on the moneyline:
- Michigan +350: 85% of tickets, 82% of handle
- Arkansas +200: 83% of tickets, 68% of handle
- BYU +180: 64% of tickets, 41% of handle
These teams are all catching solid support not just ATS but on the moneyline — especially Michigan, who’s being treated as a live dog despite the large spread.
Least Loved Bets on the Board
Sometimes value hides in plain sight — like the teams no one wants to touch:
- Least Bet Favorite: Auburn -9.5 (only 22% of bets, 27% of handle)
- Least Bet Underdog to Win: Ole Miss +145 (just 25% of tickets, 32% of money)
With so much love going to Michigan, it’s clear Auburn is being faded — potentially creating a buy-low opportunity. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is being ignored despite keeping it close against higher seeds in recent play.
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The public is leaning hard into favorites and high totals across the round of 16 board. With overwhelming money behind Florida, Duke, and Alabama — and nearly every total trending toward the over — there could be significant value fading the crowd or picking the right underdog to pull off an upset.
Keep a close eye on line movement ahead of tip-off, and use these insights to find spots where sharp action and public money diverge. As always, trust your research and shop for the best lines.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
