There has been no shortage of drama this Wild Card Weekend. Constant lead changes, fourth-quarter comebacks, and upsets of some variety have been a common thread through the first five matchups. Now, the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers will try and match that energy on Monday Night Football.
The Texans enter tonight’s AFC clash as short road favorites, but will the Steelers continue to upset parade?
Where to Watch Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Stadium: Acrisure Stadium
- Location: Pittsburgh, PA
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
- Spread: HOU -3 (-105) | PIT +3 (-115)
- Total: Over 38.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
- Moneyline: HOU -162 | PIT +136
At this point, most people have caught wind of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ exhaustive Monday Night Football record at home. The AFC North champs have won 23 straight home games under the bright lights to end the football week. That record will be put to the test in the Wild Card Round, as the Texans enter as -3 chalk.
Despite the betting confidence, this line has ticked in the Steelers’ direction. Granted, a half-point move isn’t an earth-shattering development. Still, it reflects the sharp money that’s coming in on the hosts in this win-or-go-home contest. That steam is worth chasing, as the Steelers wield a significant offensive advantage over the Texans.
Neither team has excelled offensively this season. Both sit in the bottom half of the league in total and scoring offense, positions that are diverging in recent weeks. Houston has mustered just 327.0 yards per game in 2025, sliding to 323.7 over the past few weeks. Conversely, Pittsburgh is picking up steam, going from 306.5 yards on the season to 392.3 yards since Week 16.
It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh’s growth has come without DK Metcalf in the lineup. The mercurial wide receiver was suspended for the last two games of the season, a modest stretch that included a 390-yard performance in a must-win game versus the Ravens. With Metcalf back in the lineup, we’re predicting another robust offensive showing at Acrisure Stadium.
Defensively, the Texans are the superior team. But that unit is also trending in the wrong direction. Across its last three games, Houston’s yards allowed has ballooned to 325.0, a significant departure from its 279.1-yard average.
Momentum is carrying these teams in opposite directions. Naturally, that points us toward the Steelers as home underdogs in the Wild Card Weekend finale.
Best Bet: Steelers +3
Aaron Rodgers has turned back the clock with his latest efforts. More importantly, he’s gotten the Steelers’ offense to buy into his philosophy. That’s reflected in their on-field synergy, an invaluable resource that will help Pittsburgh contend for a spot in the Divisional Round. Rodgers has a modest passing yards prop, but we predict he will soar north of that at home.
Without a run game to alleviate the pressure, the Steelers’ quarterback has been the driving force behind the team’s offensive success. Rodgers has attempted no fewer than 39 pass attempts in any of his last three outings, averaging 42.3 throws across that sample. Predictably, that correlates with a sharp increase in output. The future Hall of Famer has averaged 246.7 yards per game, eclipsing 266 yards in all but one of those contests.
Houston’s passing defense is largely to blame for its late-season defensive woes. Sitting sixth in passing yards allowed on the season, the Texans have fallen to 23rd over the previous three weeks. Opponents are moving the ball effortlessly through the air, with Houston giving up 226.7 yards per game over that stretch. With only one of those games coming against a playoff team, the Texans could be in for a rude awakening in the Steel City.
The Steelers will only go as far as the Rodgers carries them. We’re betting he’s at his best under the bright lights and builds off his recent performances. With that, we’re going exotic and backing Aaron Rodgers to reach at least 225 passing yards versus the Texans.
Best Bet: Aaron Rodgers to Record 225+ Passing Yards +146
NFL Wild Card Weekend: Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Best Bets
- Steelers +3
- Aaron Rodgers to Record 225+ Passing Yards
We’re taking a stance on the Steelers in this one, betting the underdog trend persists at least one more game. For Pittsburgh to cover, Rodgers needs to be firing from the pocket, pointing toward another strong passing performance.
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