The Betting Landscape
As the NHL season enters its final stretch, the Hart Trophy race is taking shape, with several standout candidates vying for the league’s MVP honor. According to BetMGM odds, Leon Draisaitl is currently the favorite at -165, while Connor Hellebuyck remains the sportsbook’s biggest liability. Meanwhile, Hellebuyck also holds the highest handle percentage (23.5%).
Leon Draisaitl: The Goal-Scoring Machine
Leon Draisaitl‘s dominance in the goal-scoring department has cemented his case as the front-runner. With 46 goals, he leads the NHL by a comfortable margin, sitting ten goals ahead of the nearest competitor, William Nylander. If Draisaitl maintains this pace, he could be the league’s only 50-goal scorer this season, a significant milestone that bolsters his Hart Trophy argument. Additionally, his 97 points place him second in the league behind Nathan MacKinnon, further solidifying his all-around offensive impact.
The Edmonton Oilers currently sit second in the Pacific Division with 78 points, holding a seven-point lead over the closest Wild Card competitor. While Edmonton’s team success doesn’t match some of the other contenders, Draisaitl’s elite offensive production keeps him at the forefront of the MVP discussion.
Nathan MacKinnon: The League’s Leading Playmaker
Nathan MacKinnon leads the NHL in points with 102, five more than Draisaitl, making him the league’s top offensive weapon. His 75 assists are the most in the NHL, proving his ability to elevate teammates and drive the Colorado Avalanche’s offensive attack. MacKinnon’s ability to consistently create scoring opportunities makes him an essential piece of Colorado’s success.
The Avalanche currently sit third in the Central Division with 81 points, virtually locking in a playoff berth. While MacKinnon’s case is strong from a statistical standpoint, the biggest obstacle in his Hart Trophy bid may be the competitors around him are just having astounding seasons. In most other years, MacKinnon would be a lock for this award with much shorter odds than +450. MacKinnon deserves more attention considering the campaign he’s putting up, with not much of a supporting cast.
Connor Hellebuyck: The MVP-Caliber Goalie
Goaltenders rarely win the Hart Trophy, and history suggests that even a dominant season in the crease isn’t always enough. However, Connor Hellebuyck is making a case for MVP consideration. The Winnipeg Jets lead the NHL in wins with 45 and are tied for first in points with 94, largely thanks to Hellebuyck’s stellar play.
He leads virtually every key goaltending metric and is a heavy favorite to win the Vezina Trophy at -5000. While those numbers are MVP-worthy on their own, the Hart Trophy voters historically shy away from goaltenders, as the award typically favors offensive production. That said, he’s right there at +150 with under 20 games left in the season. The fact that Hellebuyck is the biggest liability for sportsbooks suggests there is significant betting interest in him. Still, his best bet may remain the Vezina rather than the Hart.
Who Has the Edge?
Draisaitl’s scoring dominance and team success give him the upper hand in the race, especially if he becomes the league’s only 50-goal scorer. MacKinnon’s playmaking ability and league-leading point total keep him firmly in the conversation, while Hellebuyck’s goaltending excellence makes him a dark horse candidate despite the historical bias against goalies. With just weeks remaining in the regular season, the Hart Trophy battle is far from over, and each contender will need to finish strong to lock in their claim as the NHL’s MVP.
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