Legalized sports betting has exploded in recent years. It is now legal in 38 states at retail sportsbooks, online, or both.
Many different types of sports bets are available. The list includes straight bets, parlays, teasers, pleasers, futures, and props. Like with most other forms of gambling, the house advantage increases with the potential size of the payout.
Straight bets are the most popular. That is when a player wagers on one specific outcome. That may be with a moneyline, meaning outright winner, or on a point spread, which is a point handicap on a favorite that is given to the underdog. Point spread bets usually require laying $11 for every $10 wagered. Moneylines depend on how lopsided the sportsbooks think the game will be.
Parlays combine the elements of straight bets. It is two or more outcomes tied into a single wager. These may be some combination of moneylines, point spreads, and props. Some sportsbooks permit futures to be parlayed.
Many legal online sportsbooks push same-game parlays. This means all outcomes are tied to one contest. For example, it may include a side, total, a quarterback’s passing yards, a running back’s rushing yards, and whether a player scores a touchdown.
In most cases, there are better ways to bet on multiple outcomes than a same-game parlay. Most parlays increase variance, and in most cases, also add to the house edge. If the contests are not played at the same time, consider placing multiple straight bets. The math in the next session shows why this is the case.
Straight Bet Math Versus Parlays
A typical point spread straight bet requires a -110 lay. This means for every $11 wagered, $10 is paid out on a winner. A straight bet with this lay holds 4.55%. Some casinos may offer “dime lines” in baseball or major events like the Super Bowl. That puts the lay at -105, cutting the house edge in half to 2.38%.
Parlay payouts are calculated in two different ways. Most sportsbooks use the actual odds to determine the payout. Moneyline parlays are also processed this way. This is called an off-the-board parlay. A few sportsbooks have specific paytables for parlays. This was how it was always done in the old days. Today, it mostly applies to small operations and special parlay cards with excessive holds and bad rules like ties lose. In most cases, the return is higher when betting off-the-board.
Computing a Parlay Payout
Most sportsbooks pull standard parlays off-the-board, meaning the payout is the same as rolling over winnings from the first bet to the next. A player betting $10 on a winning two-team parlay on -110 sides receives $26.45 plus the $10 bet returned. A parlay paytable would normally be 13/5, making the payout only $26 plus the $10 bet returned. The discrepancy gets larger as more teams are added.
Same game parlays have correlated outcomes. Betting the over and many players to score a touchdown or exceed statistical performances decrease the payouts. For example, parlaying an over in a game and betting four players at +300 to score a touchdown should pay +4877, as each winning bet and the original wager are rolled over with each leg hitting. However, due to the correlation with the over, it may only return +4000. A built-in higher house edge compared to off-the-board payouts may also increase the sportsbook’s hold.
While betting these longshot same game parlays may allow for the dream of a big lottery hit, the chances of winning combined with the house edge make these bets unfavorable to players.
Betting Straights Instead of Parlays
In most cases, the house advantage percentage is the same between betting a straight and a parlay. However, the actual dollar amount held is higher on parlays due to the reinvestment of each winning bet. Here is an example.
You have a good feeling about four football games. You want to bet $110 on each, but your gut is so strong that you think this is a big payday waiting. If you bet $110 straight on each game, here are all the possible outcomes:
- Win four games: +$400
- Win three games: +$190
- Win two games: -$20
- Win one game: -$230
- Win no games: -$440
If you bet a four-team parlay, you win $1351.16 if all legs hit, but lose $110 in the other three scenarios. Assuming each side has the same chances of covering the point spread, a four-team parlay wins 6.25% of the time.
In 10,000 different four-team parlays, this ticket theoretically wins 625 times. It loses the other 9375 occurrences. The average payout is $84.44. With $110 bet on every ticket, the player theoretically loses $25.56 each time.
There are 16 possible outcomes of a four-team parlay:
- All legs win: 1/16
- Three legs win: 4/16
- Two legs win: 6/16
- One leg wins: 4/16
- All legs lose: 1/16
Straight Bet Outcomes by Occurrence
If a player decides to make straight bets instead of parlays, the theoretical returns for four $27.50 straight bets would occur based on the probability described above. Four $27.50 straight bets equals the same handle as a $110 parlay. The expected outcome accounting for the percentage of occurrence is below.
- All legs win: +$6.25
- Three legs win: +$47.50
- Two legs win: -$11.25
- One leg wins: -$57.50
- All legs lose: -$6.88
The theoretical loss on the $110 when betting four teams straight up instead of a parlay is $21.88. The expected loss when betting the $110 as a four-team parlay is $25.56. The parlay bettor loses $3.68 more on average than the one who makes straight bets.
Ties were ignored for the above calculations. If one or more legs of a parlay push, it is removed from the ticket. If all other legs win, it is paid out according to the number of winners. The exception is parlay tickets that explicitly state that all ties lose.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
