The Men’s College Basketball Tournament continues with the next set of round of sixteen taking center stage on Friday night. There was no shortage of drama in yesterday’s outcomes. Iowa and Illinois cashed as plus-money underdogs, while Purdue narrowly escaped a thriller versus Texas. We’re expecting more of the same on tonight’s schedule.
Let’s run through all four games, highlighting our favorite betting picks from each contest!
(5) St. John’s Red Storm vs (1) Duke Blue Devils
Spread: St. John’s +6.5 (-110) | Duke -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: St. John’s +225 | Duke -275
Total: 142.5 Over (-105) | Under (-115)
The top-ranked Duke Blue Devils face a sincere challenge in the round of sixteen. The St. John’s Red Storm have quietly asserted themselves as a top contender, albeit without much fanfare. We’re predicting the madness continues with another upset in the early contest.
The Johnnies survived a scare in Round 2, needing a buzzer-beating layup versus Kansas to advance. Implicit in that outcome was the same kind of offensive efficiency and defensive responsibility that we’ve seen from St. John’s since the start of the campaign. They will need to maintain those standards if they hope to escape their round of Sixteen matchup in Washington.
Duke hasn’t been without its own struggles. They were trailing throughout most of their opening-round showdown versus Siena, and didn’t pull away versus TCU until late in the second-half. They won’t be able to follow that blueprint against the superior Red Storm.
The Blue Devils’ slow start will be their undoing in the round of sixteen. St. John’s can hang with Duke offensively, and should tighten its defensive standards down the stretch. We’re betting on another upset in this one.
Best Bet: St. John’s +225
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (1) Michigan Wolverines
Spread: Alabama +9.5 (-110) | Michigan -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Alabama +280 | Michigan -380
Total: 172.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Michigan Wolverines remain the betting favorites for this year’s National Championship, and the Alabama Crimson Tide won’t offer much resistance. Expect a decisive victory from the Big Ten regular season champs on Friday night.
Analytically, the Crimson Tide are the worst defensive team left standing. According to KenPom, they rank 59th in defensive efficiency, an insurmountable weakness versus a team as dominant as the Wolverines. Still, Bama’s offense will do what it can to live up to its third-ranked efficiency rating and 91.6 point per game.
Michigan has dialed up the offensive intensity in the Big Dance. They put up 101 points on 67.3% shooting versus Howard in Round 1. Subsequently, they dropped 95 on Saint Louis last time out, hitting 55.7% from the floor.
This Midwest Region showdown will turn into a track meet. Alabama’s only strength is offense, and they will try and pick up the pace versus Michigan. The Wolverines will be happy to oblige, sending this one over the total.
Best Bet: Over 172.5
(3) Michigan State Spartans vs (2) UConn Huskies
Spread: Michigan State +1.5 (-110) | UConn -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Michigan State +105 | UConn -125
Total: 136.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The UConn Huskies are looking to reclaim their mantle as the best team in college basketball. However, they’ll need to get past the Michigan State Spartans to do so. The Huskies enter as the higher ranked team, but the analytics support that Michigan State is the better team.
The Spartans wield advantages in both ends of the court. They average more points per game than their round of Sixteen counterparts, while also scoring more efficiently. According to KenPom, Michigan State ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency, seven spots higher than the Huskies. Moreover, their 36.7% three-point percentage is more than three points higher than UConn’s 33.4%.
UConn will do its best to contain the Spartans’ offense, but the Huskies’ recent track record doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. They have dropped three of their last 10, accounting for 60% of their five losses this season.
If Furman can put up 71 versus UConn, Michigan State should have no problem following suit. We’re betting the Spartans’ offensive superiority is the difference, with MSU punching its way into the quarterfinals.
Best Bets: Michigan State +105
(6) Tennessee Volunteers vs (2) Iowa State Cyclones
Spread: Tennessee +4.5 (-115) | Iowa State -4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Tennessee +155 | Iowa State -185
Total: 139.5 Over (-105) | Under (-115)
The Tennessee Volunteers stumbled at the end of the regular season, but have had no problems getting through two rounds of the college basketball tournament. They’ll meet their match in the round of Sixteen, needing to neutralize the Iowa State Cyclones’ underappreciated offense.
Everything Tennessee does well, Iowa State does a little better. The Cyclones average more points, score more efficiently, play with more pace, and shoot better from the floor. Similarly, Iowa State ranks more prominently in most defensive categories, encapsulated in its 17th-ranked defense compared to the Vols 41st-ranked standing.
Moreover, we’ve seen Iowa State flex those muscles early in the tourney. Through two games, the Big 12 representatives have scored 190 points while holding opponents to 137. Not surprisingly, the Cyclones have easily covered the number in both contests.
The betting market may be tilting in the Volunteers’ favor, but we’re not discounting the Cyclones in this one. We’re laying the points with Iowa State in Chicago.
Best Bet: Iowa State -4.5
