Like their NBA counterparts, it took the entirety of the regular season to finalize the NHL playoff seeding. As of last night, the field and schedule are set, while the betting market continues to adjust.
We’re breaking down every Stanley Cup Playoffs series, predicting the series winners and outlining where the betting value lies.
Eastern Conference
There is a clear gap between the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and the rest of the pack. We’re evaluating whether any team can dispatch the Tampa Bay Lightning or Carolina Hurricanes.
- Carolina Hurricanes vs (WC2) Ottawa Senators
The Hurricanes’ quest for the Stanley Cup starts with a first-round matchup versus the Ottawa Senators. Carolina wields a significant analytics advantage, but the Senators won’t go down without a fight.
The 2025-26 campaign was another show of dominance from the Hurricanes. The Metropolitan Division winners finished the season with the second-best expected goals-for rating (55.9%) and second-best record. Still, they tend to lose momentum in the playoffs, and can’t afford to look past a feisty Sens side.
Ottawa is playing its best hockey of the season. The Sens have outplayed seven of their last eight opponents, and they could make things extremely uncomfortable for the Hurricanes. This series will last longer than expected, albeit with the favored Hurricanes prevailing.
Best Bets: Hurricanes -175, Series Length 7 Games +210
- Buffalo Sabres vs (WC1) Boston Bruins
The Buffalo Sabres surprised everyone this season, earning their first division title in over 15 years. This is still an inexperienced team that could fall victim to a battle-tested Boston Bruins squad.
This isn’t the Bruins first rodeo. While they missed the playoffs last season, a big chunk of their roster knows what it takes to win in the playoffs. Conversely, the Sabres young nucleus is just learning how to win and could be overwhelmed by the intensity and emotion of the playoffs.
Boston is always built for the playoffs. The B’s play with unrelenting tenacity, which could know the Sabres off their stride. The Bruins are the right side to be on.
Best Bets: Bruins +155
(M2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs (M3) Philadelphia Flyers
The Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers will be appointment viewing in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. One of the most heated rivalries in the NHL, we expect emotion to boil over in the Battle of Pennsylvania.
There are two substantive difference between the Pens and Flyers. Most notably, Pittsburgh is the superior analytics team, ranking above their intra-state rivals in virtually every advanced metric. Further, the Penguins’ nucleus has been here before and knows what it takes to win.
Pittsburgh’s dynamic duo of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin will be the difference in this tightly contested series. We’re predicting vintage performances from the future Hall of Famers as they lead their team into the second round.
Best Bets: Penguins -161
(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (M3) Montreal Canadiens
The Tampa Bay Lightning fell short of their first division title since 2018-19, but that has never been a prerequisite for postseason success. They should have no problem dispatching the Montreal Canadiens in Round 1.
Analytically, there is a huge gap between these two teams. The Lightning finished the season with the fourth-best expected goals-for rating and the second-most goals at five-on-five. Conversely, the Habs finished with the 10th-worst eGF mark, significantly overachieving relative to underlying metrics.
This should be one of the quickest first-round series. The Bolts are light-years ahead of the Canadiens, and have unmatched scoring depth throughout their lineup. Expect a systematic dispatching in Round 1.
Best Bets: Lightning -238
Western Conference
There is a clear frontrunner in the Western Conference, but the Colorado Avalanche can’t take anything for granted. Any number of teams can catch the Avs off guard, and everyone will have them in their cross-hairs.
(C1) Colorado Avalanche vs (WC2) Los Angeles Kings
The Avs’ playoff journey starts with a challenging first-round clash versus the Los Angeles Kings. LA has looked different with Artemi Panarin in the lineup, and we’re forecasting a monumental first-round upset.
Since the Panarin acquisition, scoring has been one of the Kings’ most prominent strengths. The wild card squad has tallied 28 goals over their last eight contests, with 25 of those coming at five-on-five. At the same time, Colorado’s defensive zone coverage has been lacking, leaving the door open for the Kings to continue their assault.
The Avalanche have a bad track record of disappearing in the playoffs, and we’re forecasting more of the same versus LA. No one is expecting it, but the Kings are ripe for an upset.
Best Bets: Kings +350
(P1) Vegas Golden Knights vs (WC2) Utah Mammoth
For years, the former iteration of the Utah Mammoth was the laughingstock of the league. Kudos to the Mammoth for shedding that former reputation, but they are still at a significant disadvantage against the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Knights went on a dramatic late-season surge up the standings. A few weeks ago, they appeared destined for the third seed in the Pacific Division. But a nearly immaculate 7-0-3 run as assured themselves of home-ice advantage through the opening two rounds of the playoffs.
The Mammoth have been trending in the opposite direction, dropping three of their last four. Without playoff experience to draw on or leadership to correct the ship, this series is over before it even got started.
Best Bets: Golden Knights -189
(C2) Dallas Stars vs (C3) Minnesota Wild
Always the bridesmaid, the Dallas Stars are looking to take the next step in this year’s playoffs. Looking to make amends for three straight Western Conference Finals losses, the Stars have to first get past the Minnesota Wild in Round 1.
For all of their successes this season, the Wild have stumbled late. Minnesota has been outplayed in four of their last seven, still managing to go 4-3-0 and inadvertently raising their PDO beyond sustainable measures. That should all come crashing down against a resilient Stars team that is tailormade for the postseason.
Dallas knows what it takes to win (early) in the playoffs. Every game will be a nail-biter, but the Stars’ scoring and goaltending advantages will be the difference.
Best Bets: Stars -120
(P2) Edmonton Oilers vs (P3) Anaheim Ducks
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Edmonton Oilers. They relinquished their division lead over the waning moments of the regular season, but they are getting healthy at the right time and should be operating at full capacity versus the Anaheim Ducks.
Former 50-goal scorer Zach Hyman returned to the Oilers’ lineup in the regular season finale, and the Monday start date may afford Leon Draisaitl enough time to make his own triumphant return. If that’s the case, Edmonton should see a substantive increase in its production metrics, yielding more six-goal outbursts on the horizon.
The Ducks fought hard to maintain the third spot in the Pacific Division, but that will ultimately be their undoing. Anaheim can’t match the Oilers’ offensive proclivity, and limited playoff experience will be a factor as well. Edmonton has to work for it, but the Oilers live to fight another day.
Best Bets: Oilers -222
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