The Stanley Cup Playoffs have been everything we were hoping for. Drama, intrigue, end-to-end action, upsets, fights, overtime, we are here for all of it. Undoubtedly, we’ve seen some unexpected results, and that snowball is expected to keep rolling the further we roll into the postseason.
While that’s happening, those consequences are also playing out in the Conn Smythe futures market. Let’s analyze BetMGM’s latest data to see which players are gaining the most traction!
Connor McDavid vs. Nathan MacKinnon
As was the case with the Hart Trophy, the top of the Conn Smythe futures board features to of the most dynamic players in the world. Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are positioned as the frontrunners for this year’s playoff MVP award; however, they are walking converting paths early in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It’s only been a couple of games, but MacKinnon’s odds have diminished slightly. At the outset of the postseason, the Colorado Avalanche assistant captain was priced at +500. Currently, he’s operating slightly below that, coming in at +550. Despite the decrease, MacKinnon still leads in terms of ticket count, being written on 10.1% of the tickets. Backed by a lesser-than 8.5% of the handle, MacKinnon is drawing more public than sharp money.
That’s even more pronounced in Connor McDavid’s splits. The Edmonton Oilers’ captain has the second-highest ticket count at 6.4%, with a distant 2.4% of the handle. Still, after the Oilers’ Game 1 win over the Ducks, McDavid’s Conny Smythe odds have increased, going from +1300 to +1200.
Where’s the Sharp Money Then?
It’s a little curious to not see McDavid and MacKinnon become the staple of sharp bettors. That money is being directed toward two of MacKinnon’s teammates, who could turn the tide for the Avalanche.
Scott Wedgewood
Most notably, Scott Wedgewood has commanded the lion’s share of Conn Smythe support among Colorado Avalanche supporters. As it stands, he’s accounted for a whopping 11.4% of the betting handle despite his more modest 4.1% ticket count. The Avs’ goaltender has been a stalwart this season, and has looked even more impressive in two postseason starts. To open the playoffs, Wedgewood has stopped 48 of 50 shots for a 96.0% save percentage and 0.94 goals against average. If he sustains that play, we will continue to see Wedgewood’s odds increase from the +6000 stepping off point.
Martin Necas
Bettors should also be keeping a close eye on Martin Necas’ Conn Smythe Trophy odds. Skating next to MacKinnon on Colorado’s top line, Necas has been an integral part of the Avalanche attack. The speedy winger has already recorded seven shots on target, and it’s just a matter of time before his puck luck starts to shift. Sharp money is expecting that to happen, with Necas’ 10.3% handle vastly exceeding his 2.5% ticket count. That could yield a hefty payday for anyone that has jumped on his current odds of +2500.
Carter Hart
Finally, Carter Hart represents BetMGM’s biggest exposure in the futures market. The Vegas Golden Knights’ netminder has been on a late-season heater, winning eight of his last nine since the regular season. With a 93.5% playoff save percentage, the longer the Knights stay alive, the shorter Hart’s odds will drop. There are several large-money bettors who will look like savant’s if Hart goes on to win the playoff MVP trophy. The 27-year-old has accounted for a mind-numbing 25.5% of the betting handle, easily the highest-mark in the NHL, with just a 2.5% ticket share. Naturally, it’s easy to see why his odds have decreased from +10000 to +6000.
Public Targets
Outside of Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, there are several other Conn Smythe contenders who have captured the eye of the public bettor.
Kirill Kaprizov
Kirill Kaprizov represents one of the more publicly-backed players in this year’s postseason. The Minnesota Wild is the highest-paid player in the NHL and one of the undisputed talents. Still, the sharpest bettors are staying away from Kaprizov. The Wild forward has a modest 1.9% handle, nearly half of his 3.1% ticket count.
Cale Makar
Similarly, Cale Makar has been another one of the prominent players to attract a more public share of the market. Usually a top defender, Makar’s perceived value has taken another hit in the playoffs. As it stands, he’s accounted for just 0.9% of the handle, standing in stark contrast to his 2.9% ticket count. It’s not surprising to see Makar’s odds fall from +900 to +1700, with the Avs’ series shifting back to LA for Games 3 and 4.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
The last player bettors should be weary of is Andrei Vasilevskiy. Over the past few seasons, the Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender has been a valuable part of their team success. A Game 1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens and more questionable play in Game 2 has forced bettors to look elsewhere. Previously a +800 frontrunner, Vasilevskiy’s odds have dropped to +1700 ahead of Game 3 in Montreal. Backed by just 0.5% of the betting handle, we wouldn’t be surprised if Vasilevskiy and the Bolts continue to tumble in their first-round matchup.
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