We’ve already reached the pivotal stage in virtually every first-round playoff series. Game 4 often serves as the inflection point, as the defining moment where teams could be down 3-1 or tied 2-2. Of course, that’s without considering the sweeps that inevitably occur, which was the case in two series this postseason.
That leaves us with only two games on the Monday night schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins are trying to stave off elimination versus the Philadelphia Flyers, whereas the Vegas Golden Knights are hoping to level their series versus the Utah Mammoth.
We’ve got plays in both games, analyzing recent play and betting markets in this pivotal showdowns.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Moneyline: Flyers +115 | Penguins -135
Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-235) | Penguins -1.5 (+180)
Total: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under (+100)
The Penguins face a sincere challenge in trying to erase a 3-0 series deficit. Sidney Crosby and company got off the schneid in Game 4, and will be looking to carry that momentum into a crucial test at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. Analytically, the gap between these teams isn’t as pronounced as the 3-1 lead implies. The Pens wield a significant advantage, which should precipitate more favorable results over the coming games.
More specifically, the Flyers are operating well above expected outcomes, putting them at risk of regression to close out the series. While Philadelphia has outplayed the Pens in two of four, Pittsburgh has put together more wholesome efforts.
Altogether, the Penguins have a 51.9% expected goals-for rating, substantially ahead of their 20.0% actual goals-for rating. Goaltending was an issue through the first three games, but Arturs Silovs came in and stopped the bleeding in Game 4. The Latvian netminder stopped 28 of 30 shots for a pristine 93.3% save percentage. We’re anticipating similar performances as he settles into the Pens’ seemingly impenetrable defensive structure.
Pittsburgh has had no problem keeping the Flyers’ offense at bay. Philadelphia hasn’t eclipsed 16 scoring or six high-danger chances in any of its four contests, averaging 13.8 and 4.8, respectively. That puts them significantly ahead of their expected goals-for tally, with the Flyers scoring eight goals at five-on-five, ahead of their projected total of 5.9.
Diminished scoring will be a common thread through the remaining games in this series. The Flyers can’t continue to overachieve offensively, particularly against the Penguins’ stout defensive structure or improved play from Silovs. That should help Pittsburgh escape with the win on home ice, in what should be a low-scoring affair.
Picks: Penguins -135, Under 5.5 +100
Vegas Golden Knights vs Utah Mammoth
Moneyline: Golden Knights -115 | Mammoth -105
Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+210) | Mammoth +1.5 (-300)
Total: Over 5.5 (-125) | Under (+105)
Regression is unforgiving. Just ask Carter Hart. The Golden Knights’ goalie has been one of the hottest commodities in the league, posting a 93.5% save percentage in seven games from the end of the regular season through Game 2. He came crashing back down to earth last time out, stopping just eight of 12 shots in a losing effort versus Utah. He may not be that bad on Monday night, but we don’t expect Hart to steal the game for Vegas.
Part of the Golden Knights’ presumptive decline is grounded in their lackluster analytics play. The Pacific Division winners have had a hard time breaking through Utah’s defensive shell. Averaging 9.0 high-danger chances per game, the Knights have fallen below seven opportunities in two of those three contests. That correlates with diminished output, with Vegas recording just five goals at five-on-five through the first three games of this Western Conference showdown.
At the same time. The Mammoth have had Hart’s number. While his play across all strengths was solid, he hasn’t had an answer for Utah’s attack at five-on-five. Hart has given up eight goals at five-on-five on just 55 shots, producing an 85.5% save percentage. Therein lies part of the concern, as the regression-bound tendy is already showing cracks in his underlying metrics.
The Mammoth also deserve credit for their opportunistic attack. Akin to the Blues’ Stanley Cup run in 2019, Utah prioritizes stifling defensive play with a turn-and-go mentality when the opportunity arises.
Home ice has also been quite the advantage for the Mammoth, particularly over the latter stages of the campaign. Utah has outplayed its opponents in six of its last seven home games, extending that run to 11 of 14 since returning from the Olympic hiatus. Altogether, that translates to a 54.5% expected goals-for rating. Relative to their actual mark of 47.8%, the Mammoth are natural progression candidates against their first-round opponents.
Two waves carry the Mammoth and Knights in very different directions. Utah should continue its elite play on home ice, albeit with more favorable outcomes. Conversely, Carter Hart is on the verge of collapse, which is already showing in some of his metrics. Naturally, that points us toward the Mammoth putting the Knights in a stranglehold in this on.
Pick: Mammoth -105
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