Tonight could end up being one of the most pivotal nights of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers are hoping to stave off elimination in their respective first-round matchups. Moreover, the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild battle it out for a 3-2 series lead, leaving either team one win away from the next round.
We’ve run through the betting market to gauge where the value lies. Check out our daily analysis to see what best bets we’re targeting on Tuesday April 28, 2026.
Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars
Moneyline: Wild +110 | Stars -130
Spread: Wild +1.5 (-265) | Stars -1.5 (+190)
Total: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under (+100)
Based on outcomes alone, the Dallas Stars have looked worthy of a second-round berth; however, the analytics reveal a much more compelling argument that the Minnesota Wild have been the superior team in this tightly-contested Central Division clash.
It hasn’t always been reflected in the scores, but Minnesota wields a tremendous advantage over its division rivals. The Wild have outplayed the Stars in three of four games, generating a 50.5% expected goals-for rating. Captured in that, Minny has out-possessed the second-seeded Stars in three of four, holding them to an average of 8.8 high-danger and 23.0 scoring chances per game. Practically, that has translated to a significant scoring advantage at five-on-five, with Minnesota outscoring their first-round counterparts 9-3.
The most concerning aspect of the Stars’ analytics profile is their limited five-on-five scoring. With just three tallies through four games, their reliance on special teams’ scoring to stay competitive is a major red flag. It’s also worth noting that the last two games have gone to overtime, inflated the Stars’ production metrics. When adjusted for the extra-time, Dallas’ scoring and high-danger chances per 60 minutes plummets to 18.9 and 7.1, respectively. That’s hardly the kind of production that will allow the Stars to increase their output over the final few games of the series.
The Wild’s defensive advantages have shined through in this series. Further, they have made the most of their scoring opportunities against the Stars. This betting line reflects presumed Stars’ dominance that is not reflected in the analytics. On that basis, the betting edge lies in backing Minnesota as valiant road underdogs.
Picks: Wild +110
Boston Bruins vs Buffalo Sabres
Moneyline: Bruins +140 | Sabres -165
Spread: Bruins +1.5 (-180) | Sabres -1.5 (+150)
Total: Over 5.5 (-125) | Under (+105)
The Buffalo Sabres have no quit in them. The series opener captures their relentless edge, as they stormed back from a 3-0 deficit to steal a 4-3 victory. While they dropped Game 2, the Sabres have gone on to reassert themselves as the superior team, and they should have no problem closing out the Boston Bruins on home ice on Tuesday night.
Buffalo has been unstoppable in both ends of the ice. So far, they have outchanced the Bruins in scoring and high-danger chances in all but one of these contests, producing mighty 62.5% scoring chance and 55.2% high-danger chance ratings. On a more absolute basis, the B’s have been held to eight or fewer quality chances in three of four, averaging just 6.5 opportunities per game. Scoring chances have also been in short supply, with Boston failing to crack 19 in any game this series, yielding a paltry average of 14.3.
At the same time, the Sabres have proven more than capable of breaking through Boston’s suspect defensive zone coverage. Averaging 23.8 scoring chances per game, Buffalo is taking liberties that the Bruins are incapable of stopping. While their 8.0 high-danger chances per game is slightly deflated, they have made the most of those opportunities. Through four games, they have totaled 12 goals at five-on-five, recording multiple tallies in all but one of those outings.
Irrespective of venue, the Sabres have dominated in every facet of the game. They are playing a solid brand of defensive hockey, while maximizing scoring in the attacking zone. Insulated on home ice in Game 5, we predict one of their best showings of the playoffs. We’re using this spot to get a piece of the Sabres on the moneyline.
Pick: Sabres -165
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