Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs continues on Friday night, featuring another two-game slate. Last night, the Hurricanes took a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Flyers, potentially setting up their third trip to the Eastern Conference Final over the past four years. They’ll await the winner of the Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres, who play Game 2 in Western New York on Friday. Out west, the Anaheim Ducks are looking to continue their spectacular run, as they host the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 3.
We’re breaking down both matchups, offering our sage advice for tonight’s NHL action!
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres
Moneyline: MTL +115 | BUF -135
Spread: MTL +1.5 (-235) | BUF -1.5 (+180)
Total: 5.5 Over (-125) | Under (+105)
The Habs’ defensive structure was the deciding factor in their first-round series win over the Lightning; however, they abandoned that brand of hockey in the series-opening loss versus the Sabres. Expect a stouter defensive performance on Friday night, as they look to limit Buffalo’s explosive offense.
Montreal skated past the Lightning on the strength of elite defensive zone play. They held the Bolts to six or fewer high-danger chances in all but two of those seven contests, outchancing them four times in the opening round. Their Game 1 performance represents a significant departure from that style of play. The Habs gave up 10 quality chances on Wednesday night, their second-highest total of the postseason, while producing seven high-danger chances of their own. Predictably, that correlates with a diminished 41.3% expected goals-for rating, a benchmark we expect the Canadiens to improve on in Game 2.
Improved defensive play from Montreal notwithstanding, we’re also anticipating modest offensive regression from the Sabres in the short term. Through seven playoff games, Buffalo is overachieving offensively, producing 17 five-on-five goals and putting them above their expected mark of 14.6. That has precipitated a spike in their PDO, jumping to 1.047 and putting the Sabres at risk of regression.
Those concerns are amplified by their more modest production metrics. Buffalo has totaled just 41 scoring and 20 high-danger chances over their last two contests, yielding just 30 shots on net over that modest stretch.
Tidier defensive zone play from the Habs, coupled with the Sabres’ anticipated offensive regression, points us toward a low-scoring affair in Game 2. In reconciling that with the plus-money on the ‘under’, we’re betting this Atlantic Division grudge match stays below the total.
Best Bets: Under 5.5 +105
Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks
Moneyline: VGK -110 | ANA -110
Spread: VGK +1.5 (-300) | ANA -1.5 (+210)
Total: 6.5 Over (+115) | Under (-135)
It’s time to take the Anaheim Ducks seriously. The third-place Pacific Division finishers put together a 52.9% expected goals-for rating over the Oilers in the first round. Subsequently, they went on to outplay the Golden Knights in each of the first two games in Vegas, churning out an even more impressive 62.4% eGF mark. With the series shifting back to Anaheim for Game 3, the Ducks should be more heavily priced at home.
Anaheim’s dominance is happening in both ends of the ice. Edmonton mustered a paltry 7.0 high-danger chances per game against the Ducks, and was held to single-digit quality chances in all but one of those contests. The Ducks sustained their defensive excellence in Round 2, with Vegas totaling just six high-danger opportunities in each of the first two games.
Moreover, Anaheim has maintained its defensive integrity without compromising its offensive production. They attempted 21 quality chances across the first two games of this series, outchancing the Knights in both games while nearly doubling their 12 attempts. With that, we’re anticipating a sharp increase in scoring with the series shifting back to the Honda Center for the next two contests.
Carter Hart also isn’t the stalwart that he proved to be toward the tail-end of the regular season. Over his last six starts, the Knights’ netminder stopped 93.0% of shots faced while leading his team to a perfect 6-0-0 record. Inevitably, Hart was destined for regression, and that’s exactly what we’ve witnessed in the playoffs. His save percentage has dipped to 90.7%, with Hart falling below 89.7% in four of those eight starts. With Vegas giving up 10 or more high-danger chances in four of its last five, Hart is projected to fall further in Anaheim.
The Ducks’ on-ice superiority isn’t reflected in the betting odds. Anaheim opened at a pick’em at home, which is contraindicated in all of the underlying metrics. Don’t be surprised if their price increases as we approach puck drop, meaning now is the right time to back the Ducks.
Best Bets: Ducks -110
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