The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks had a week to lick their battle wounds. Now, we’re less than a week out from Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium, and both teams are putting the final touches on their preparations.
Scoring has been a strength for the Seahawks, but as we’ll see, their spike in output is contraindicated in their underlying metrics. New England has silenced its opponents this season, and it should have no problem containing Seattle’s attack on Sunday.
Seahawks’ Impending Regression
At first glance, the Seahawks look like offensive juggernauts. The NFC Champs have put up 72 points in two playoff games, easily covering the spread in both contests and sending both games over their respective totals. Still, regression is inevitable in Super Bowl LX.
Specifically, Seattle’s scoring prowess has come on the strength of its defense and is not a reflection of its offensive abilities. Over their last four games, the Seahawks have averaged just 331.5 yards per game, falling below 290 in two of the four contests. As inferred, that’s not a recipe for sustainable success.
Those concerns are amplified by the one-dimensional nature of the Seahawks’ passing attack. Seattle relies heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and if he’s neutralized the rest of the team will suffer.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – One Man Army
Using the same four-game sample, the Seahawks’ collective passing metrics are uninspired.
Altogether, Sam Darnold has thrown for 733 yards across that stretch. More concerningly, the Seahawks’ pivot has been held below 181 passing yards in all but one of those contests. That diminished production looks even worse when we factor in that Seattle is throwing the ball over 60.0% of the time.
Moreover, JSN has accounted for the lion’s share of that production. Over the last four outings, the All-Pro wideout and Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner has been targeted 36 times, hauling in 28 of those passes for 328 receiving yards.
Surely, the key to defeating the Seahawks is keeping JSN at bay.
Running Game Concerns
We also have significant concerns about Seattle’s ability to run the ball without Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks’ two-pronged approach served them well throughout the regular season, and they weren’t able to match that energy with Kenneth Walker III alone.
Last week’s win over the Rams is a pristine example of how much the Seahawks depend on both running backs. In the victory, they totaled just 75 rushing yards, with Walker mustering a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. In the only other game Charbonnet missed, Walker was held to just 38 yards on 16 carries (2.4 yards per rushing attempt).
Assuredly, the Rams’ stout defensive front was a factor in the limited production, but New England will be up to the challenge of containing Walker at Levi’s Stadium.
Patriots’ Defensive Prowess
Much has been made of New England’s relatively unobstructed path through the regular season and into the playoffs. Nevertheless, we’ve seen them dial up the intensity when it matters most, and the Patriots will be ready to defend on Sunday.
In three playoff games, the AFC Champs have held their opponents to a collective 26 points on 629 yards. On a per-game basis, that translates to 8.7 points and 209 yards per game. It’s tempting to submit that those metrics are distorted across the small sample, but the Pats have played up to that level all season.
Across their 20 games this season, New England held its opponents to a miniscule 282.4 yards per game. Predictably, that correlates with just 17.3 points per game, both of which are tied for the second-least in the league.
Some have attempted to diminish the Pats’ performance based on strength of schedule. Still, they consistently outperform their opponents on the field.
Final Thoughts – Betting Implications
As is the case every Sunday throughout the football season, bettors are now tasked with using this information to make profitable plays come game time. Depending on your risk tolerance and betting strategies, there are multiple entry points worth considering.
By taking a position on the Patriots ahead of kick-off bettors can insulate their positions with a variety of wagers. Seattle’s Super Bowl aspirations are saddled to Jaxon Smith-Njigba carrying the offense. If he breaks through the Patriots’ defense, he’s a natural top contender for the Super Bowl MVP. At +550, that leaves plenty of room to back New England on the moneyline, expecting some contrarian correlation between those points.
Alternatively, bettors can make their bets now, and keep an eye on live betting for hedging opportunities. If you like the Seahawks’ chances, but expect the Pats to come out firing, you will get a much better number when Super Bowl LX kicks off.
Whatever your preferred strategy, always bet responsibly and make sure you’re sitting down for an exciting conclusion. This one is probably going to get messy.
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