The race for the 2024 NBA MVP award has narrowed to two frontrunners: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić. Both players are having remarkable seasons, leading their respective teams to elite status in the Western Conference. While betting markets favor SGA, the debate remains intense, especially after their recent head-to-head battles.
NBA Tuesday Best Bets: Player Props | 4-Leg Parlay | Bucks-Pacers | Picks Page | Props Page
The Case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SGA has taken his game to another level this season, leading the league in scoring at 32.7 points per game while also contributing 5.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists per contest. His defensive impact is also noteworthy, ranking second in the NBA in steals per game. The Oklahoma City Thunder boast the best record in the Western Conference at 53-12, a significant achievement that further strengthens his MVP candidacy.
- Recent Performances vs. Denver
- March 10 (Loss, 140-127): 25 points, 8-14 FG, 3-7 3PT, 6-6 FT, three rebounds, seven assists
- March 9 (Win, 127-103): 40 points, 15-32 FG, 2-11 3PT, 8-8 FT, eight rebounds, five assists
- SGA has consistently delivered for OKC, demonstrating his ability to take over games, particularly in their statement win against Denver. His efficiency, scoring versatility, and defensive presence make him a well-rounded MVP candidate.
- Betting Markets & Public Perception
- SGA is the current MVP betting favorite at -425.
- He leads in MVP handle percentage at BetMGM (28.2%) and has received significant backing from bettors.
- In a public poll, SGA holds a slight edge over Jokić, with just over 53% of the vote.
The numbers, the betting trends, and the eye test all point to SGA being a deserving MVP, leading the top team in the conference while putting up historic scoring numbers.
The Case for Nikola Jokić
Nikola Jokić has been a dominant force once again, averaging 28.9 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game while shooting 57.7% from the field. The Denver Nuggets sit second in the Western Conference at 42-23, and Jokić remains the most complete player in the league.
- Recent Performances vs. Oklahoma City
- March 10 (Win, 140-127): 35 points, 15-20 FG, 1-2 3PT, 4-5 FT, 18 rebounds, eight assists
- March 9 (Loss, 127-103): 24 points, 10-23 FG, 2-10 3PT, 2-6 FT, 13 rebounds, nine assists
Jokić continues to deliver all-around excellence, impacting the game in ways no other player can. His unique ability to facilitate as a center, combined with his elite scoring and rebounding, makes him arguably the best player in the world. He’s also a triple-double machine, leading the league with 29, 19 more than the nearest competitor (LeBron James – 10).
- Why Jokić Might Be Overlooked
- Voter fatigue: Jokić has won three of the last four MVPs, including last season’s
- Higher standards: His performances are often taken for granted because he consistently puts up historic numbers.
- Denver is the No. 2 seed compared to OKC’s No. 1 standing and is 11 games back of the Thunder.
Despite these factors, there’s no denying Jokić’s impact. His historic 31-21-22 performance against the Phoenix Suns last week, making Joker the first player in league history with a 30-20-20 triple-double, further cements his status as an all-time great. Even these recent performances haven’t been enough to overtake SGA as the betting favorite. Jokic has dropped his odds to +300 from +550 last week, so he is undoubtedly still in the race. Leading at BetMGM with 20.3% of tickets and holding 23.2% of the handle, the public sure still sees Joker as possibly having the last laugh.
The Verdict: Who Should Win?
The debate ultimately comes down to a mix of narrative, team success, and statistical dominance. If the award is purely for the best player in the world, it’s hard to argue against Jokić. However, MVP voting often factors in a fresh storyline, and SGA leading the Thunder to the top of the NBA while putting up incredible scoring numbers makes him the likely winner.
Jokić has been the best player over the last five years, but this season, SGA has built a compelling case that could finally deny Jokić another MVP trophy. With a few weeks left in the regular season, the battle isn’t over, but the odds are in SGA’s favor for now.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
