Months of preparation have all come down to this exact moment. The New England Patriots battle the Seattle Seahawks for football supremacy in Super Bowl LX. The Seahawks are holding steady as -4.5 favorites, with the total unmoved (45.5) from where it started at the beginning of the week. Still, it would be naive to think there won’t be any small adjustments as we approach kick-off.
We’re breaking down all of the betting action that helped us get to the grand finale, highlighting big money wagers, line adjustments, and BetMGM’s biggest liabilities ahead of Sunday’s big game!
Big Money Wagers
Several big money wagers have filtered in on both sides throughout the season. Thankfully, the even action has allowed BetMGM to mitigate its exposure when it comes to this notable wagers.
Way back at the start of the year, when people still weren’t taking the Seahawks seriously, they were priced as +6000 longshots to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Clearly, someone’s crystal ball was working just fine, as they bet $50,000 for Seattle to triumph over the rest of the league. That could net the bettor a remarkable $3 million if the Seahawks cash on Sunday.
Even more noteworthy, two significant wagers have come in on the Patriots. First, a sharp bettor got $30,000 down on New England at +2200, for a potential return of $660,000. Second, another person wagered $725,000 at the current +195 offering, yielding a potential return of nearly $1.5 million.
Moneyline and futures returns notwithstanding, there are still some other bettors looking to capitalize on the spread. Earlier this week, BetMGM took a $325,000 wager on the Patriots to cover the +4.5 spread at -105.
More big money wagers favor the Patriots, but as we see week after week, that’s not necessarily a recipe for success.
Line Movement
While we’ve been holding steady since the start of the week, the betting line has fluctuated since opening. Bettors can make inferences to guide their betting strategies ahead of Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium.
Even before the Super Bowl matchup was confirmed, the Seahawks were presumptive favorites. Bettors wasted no time in getting a piece of the NFC Champions. Seattle opened as -4 chalk, climbing as high as -5.5 at some shops, before settling back down at -4.5. Captured in that line movement, captured in that line movement is 61% of the betting tickets and 55% of the handle.
Astute bettors will recognize the shifting power dynamics in this winner-take-all showdown. Earlier, the biggest wagers were coming in on the Seahawks, dominating handle at over 60%. Since then, BetMGM has seen an influx of New England wagers, tilting the handle closer in the Patriots’ direction. As it stands, the AFC Champs are collecting just 39% of the tickets, albeit with a more equitable 45% handle.
The total is more unremarkable. The total opened at 46, dropping a half point to 45.5 and holding steady at that number. With 52% of the tickets and handle coming in on the over, we’re unlikely to see any substantive movement ahead of kick-off.
Other Key Bets & BetMGM Exposure
With the seemingly neverending wagering options, BetMGM has exposure across the game. Let’s dig into some of the more common wagers and what the sportsbook will be rooting for on Sunday.
Not surprisingly, bettors are hammering the Seahawks in several key markets. Seattle leads the winning margin field, with the Seahawks winning by 7-12 (+340), commanding most of the market exposure. From there, the Seahawks winning by 1-6 (+275) and 13-18 (+525) are the next most common bet tickets.
We’re seeing even more pronounced action in the 1st Quarter spread market. BetMGM has Seattle priced as -0.5 1st Quarter favorites. So far, 84% of the tickets and 96% of the handle is coming in on the NFC squad to lead after the first 15 minutes.
At the same time, the 1st Quarter total is set at 7.5, with 72% of tickets and 60% of the handle coming in on the under. Infer what you will from these numbers, but it sounds like bettors are expecting defenses to shine brightly early on Sunday.
Betting Wrap-Up
This is everyone’s last chance to bet on NFL football until the start of September, and most people are treating it as the extravaganza it deserves to be.
Sharp bettors have taken positions on both sides, and this could be one of the more competitive games in recent years. The Seahawks and Patriots both rely on stout defensive play, but neither team is short on offensive firepower. That balance is reflected in the even betting action ahead of Super Bowl LX.
With just a couple of days between us and the biggest football event of the year, stay up to date with all of the latest line movement and always bet responsibly.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
