We are just a few days removed from Wyndham Clark’s dramatic one-stroke victory at the 126th U.S. Open. The American nearly imploded in the last round, salvaging par on the 18th hole on Sunday to secure his second major title. Clark isn’t resting on his laurels, entering this weekend’s Travelers Championship looking for his third win over his last five tournaments.
Clark may be swinging a hot club, but he’s fading down BetMGM’s betting board ahead of Thursday’s opening round. We’re assessing the state of the betting market for this weekend’s prestigious Travelers Championship.
Course Layout
Every year since 1984, the Travelers Championship has been held at TPC at River Highlands. The Cromwell, Connecticut course is known for its player-friendly confines. Back in 2023, Keegan Bradley set a tournament record, carding an aggregate score of 257 for -23. Moreover, six of the last eight winners have all finished -17 or better.
The TPC at River Highlands measures just 6,800 yards, favoring accuracy over distance. That neutralizes the playing field, allowing shorter-hitting players to lean into their strengths in the fairways and greenside. Still, everyone wants a piece of Scottie Scheffler.
Scheffler a Sharp Target
As is the case every tournament, Scottie Scheffler is the intersection of public and sharp money. Heading into Thursday’s opening round, the top-ranked golfer in the world has attracted 16.3% of tickets and 23.0% of the handle. Despite the constant bombardment, BetMGM is holding Scheffler steady as the +400 favorite.
Scheffler consistently delivers, and he has a good reputation at the Travelers Championship. He won the 2024 edition, besting Tom Kim in a playoff and finishing with a -22 – one shot shy of the previous best set by Keegan Bradley the year prior. He followed that up with a T6 finish last year, as well as a T4 finish in 2023.
Early-round jitters continue to be a limiting factor for the American. Scheffler carded a 72 in Round 1 at the U.S. Open, finishing -2 over the final three rounds. Likewise, he finished above par through the first two rounds of the Memorial Tournament before finding his rhythm over the weekend.
If Scheffler has any hope of delivering his first win since a season-opening victory at the American Express, he needs to come out ready in Thursday’s opener.
Bettors Fading Clark
Bettors are counting on lightning not striking twice. After his unexpected win at the U.S. Open, Clark is a distant +2800 in this weekend’s event. Opening at a more favorable +2200, we’re anticipating more downward correction throughout the tourney.
As mentioned, Clark is riding a wave of momentum into the TPC at River Highlands. He claimed victory at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, third at the Memorial, and T11 at the RBC Canadian Open ahead of last week’s win. Still, most bettors are shying away from Clark this weekend.
As it stands, Clark has accounted for just 1.6% of the betting handle while being written on 2.4% of the tickets. That difference implies that it’s mostly small wagers coming in on the eighth-ranked golfer.
One of the premier mid-range golfers in the game, Clark could once again find success at the Travelers Championship. Sharp bettors are steering clear, but there’s plenty of value on Clark, particularly in the exotics market (i.e. to finish top 5, top 10, etc.).
Betting Value to be Had
If Wyndham Clark doesn’t suit your taste in the +2500 range, there are two other golfers that everyone should pay close attention to – Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa.
Justin Thomas has seen a slight drop in his betting odds as we approach tee off. The American has moved from +2800 to +2500 on the strength of 6.3% of the betting handle and just 3.3% of tickets. Thomas has finished T20 or better in each of the last five tournaments, relying on his elite greenside touch to stay competitive. He will concede distance off the tee, but that’s not a priority at TPC at River Highlands. Expect Thomas to be in contention throughout the weekend.
Similarly, Collin Morikawa is coming off a T17 finish at the U.S. Open, and is a menace from the fairways. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in Shots Gained: Approach to Green and 19th in terms of Greens in Regulation percentage.
The key for Morikawa will be keeping the putter out of his hands. He sits a distant 88th in Shots Gained: Putting, implying that his best work will have to come with his irons. If that’s the case, Morikawa could easily exceed the implied value of his +2800 betting price and validate the 7.6% handle he’s received.
Other Golfers Being Faded
Wyndham Clark isn’t the only golfer being faded this weekend. Several household names are on the wrong end of the ticket/handle splits, suggesting that it’s best to avoid these golfers at the Travelers Championship.
Most notably, Tommy Fleetwood is holding steady as a +1600 contender, albeit with an unflattering handle. While he’s commanded the third-highest ticket count (5.4%) the Briton has accounted for just 3.6% of the handle.
Likewise, Xander Scheuffele has been dismissed as a legitimate threat. The two-time major winner has a laughable 1.9% handle, sitting just shy of Fleetwood with a 4.6% ticket count. Schauffele has alternated above- and below-average performances this season, and bettors are clearly expecting some regression in Connecticut.
Finally, Keegan Bradley’s chances of reclaiming his former glory are effectively squashed. He sits a distant +4500 on the futures board, which isn’t tempting enough for any bettors. Bradley’s 0.9% handle is dwarfed by his 1.9% ticket count. Another record-setting performance is probably not in the cards, but unfortunately, neither is a win.
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