We’ve heard Brian Christopher say “Big Numbers Attract Big Numbers,” and we even compiled examples of this that led to a video for Brian’s channel:
The idea that this can exist in the midst of a random number generator throws some players, so we periodically get questions like this:
What do you mean when you say “In some bonuses if you get a big number, the machine favors those big numbers and you get more big numbers on that bonus”. And how does that work when machines are random number generators and all about timing? The only thing I’ve seen is bigger BETS attracting bigger numbers/wins in bonuses.
Susan M.
Generally speaking what happens is the numbers on the balls aren’t fixed. Each spin, along with where the reels are going to stop, the prizes on the various balls are also determined. Most of the time a good chunk of the prizes will be 1x and 2x prizes on games like Lightning Link, but on occasion the prizes will be larger.
The Random Number Generator in this case is actually playing a critical part, because what prizes are on offer on a given spin is determined randomly based on that same timing.
This is how some bonuses outperform others by a good margin – instead of having to land one good sized ball (the Major, the 200x, etc.) to get there, a number of mid-sized prizes pop up, building to a good end number.
Those bonuses actually can be among the more fun, because as each decently sized ball lands, it becomes clear what’s happening – this is going to be a good bonus and each additional ball is going to contribute, And it’s one of the secrets of the success of those Link games, because of that ability for the random bonus to suddenly overperform, and it can happen on any bonus.
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Another way to look at it is that the set of prize amounts that can be on the balls or other symbols used in the Hold And Spin bonus games from Aristocrat is in a table (like a chart with two columns – amount won and percentage chance), and they clearly have multiple tables they can choose from. So they might have a table where the most common wins are1x or 2x, with an occasional 5x or 10x, and higher values are there, but with tiny percentage chances. And then they might have a table that is more generous, where 4x-6x is the most likely. And they might even have a really rare table where 10x-20x is more likely.
So before every spin among the things they’re selecting besides the positions of the 5 reels is which hold-and-spin table they’re going to use. Maybe 80 times out of a hundred they use the regular table, and 19 times out of a hundred they use the extra-generous table, and 1 time out of a hundred they use the extra-extra-generous table. (I have no idea how many tables they use or the rarity; this is an educated guess.)
If you get six symbols on your spin and all of them are large, chances are good that they’re using a better table, so most of the symbols that land during the hold-and-spin bonus will be big as well, because they’re coming from the more-generous table. This explains Brian’s observation that “big numbers attract big numbers.”
Keep in mind that all potential amounts are most likely present on all of the tables, they’re just more or less likely. So you can get a Major bonus even on the standard table, and you can get a 1X on the generous table, but the Major is going to come out more often on the generous table than it would on the regular table, and 1X is going to come out more often on the regular table than it would on the generous table.
Great to see you around Don! This is a really good way to look at it, and might help others wrap their heads around it. As someone who recently saw a major on a 50 cent bet with mostly baby prizes around it, your point about still having a chance to win those bigger prizes even when the game is leaning towards the lower numbers is an important one!
I’d just also add that the various tables might not vary that much in their average win, they might mostly vary in volatility. Say the company wants to make the bonus return an average of 35x. They could have two tables that all hit 35X over long periods of time, but one has a lot more hits on the fringes – a lot really low and occasionally really high. Another tends to have more medium hits and fewer huge hits. They both have the same average, but the player perceives the first table as “less generous” most of the time, unless one of those big prizes comes up.
Ultimately, all of this is in service of surprising the player – players love it when it looks like they’re going to get a small bonus but it turns big with one Major or 80X ball, or they’re expecting a 20X bonus, but they land a bunch of medium-big prizes and they end up racking up 100X.
Predictability is the death of entertainment, and in the end they’re trying to make the machines do things you don’t expect. When people sit at these machines for hours, coming up with rare events and unexpected variations that keep the game feeling fresh is part of the design process.
Lightning Link celebrated its 10th anniversary with no signs of disappearing from casino floors, and that unpredictability of the hold and spin and the ability for those big numbers to flow is certainly one element that makes the game so imminently playable – any bonus can be a fun surprise. It’s a pretty brilliant design that basically set a new paradigm for casino floors – hold and spin games are everywhere.