It’s hard to believe we’re at the end of the college football season. Nearly five months later, we’re down to one final contest to determine who wears the FBS crown. Tonight’s National Championship Game pits the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers against the 10th-ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Indiana has run through its schedule relatively unscathed. Still, they will be challenged by the battle-tested Hurricanes.
Our analysis supports a couple of key plays in tonight’s championship clash in Miami!
Where to Watch (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (1) Indiana Hoosiers
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
- Location: Miami Gardens, FL
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
(10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (1) Indiana Hoosiers
- Spread: MIA +7.5 (-110) | IU -7.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 47.5 (+100) | Under (-120)
- Moneyline: MIA +260 | IU -320
The betting line has inched toward the Hurricanes as we approach kick-off. Over the past couple of weeks, Indiana was hovering at -8.5 favorites. As of this morning, that line has moved to -7.5 at some shops. Still on the other side of a key number, we like Miami’s chances of covering the spread in what will surely feel like a home game.
Environment notwithstanding, there’s plenty to like about the Hurricanes. Miami has won seven straight games, relying on a balanced offensive attack and smothering defense. Ole Miss had the most success versus the ACC team in the CFP. But even with their 27 points in the semifinal, Miami has held all three opponents to an average of 14.7 points per game. Predictably, that correlates with a stout 352.0 yards allowed per game.
The Canes will need every ounce of defensive effort to stymie the Hoosiers. Still, there are a few factors working against Indiana. The Big Ten champs are coming off a monstrous 56-point effort versus Oregon in the semifinals. However, that surge in output comes despite a decrease in overall productivity. Indiana was held to just 362 yards in the contest, getting out-gained by the Ducks. Similarly, they put up 38 points on 407 yards in the quarterfinals, stretching the imbalance between production and output. Unfortunately, that points toward immediate regression in the National Championship Game.
The Hoosiers should see a marked decrease in scoring against the Hurricanes. At the same time, Miami has more than enough firepower to keep pace with the top-ranked favorites. It may not be enough to pull off the outright upset, but we’re betting the Hurricanes stay within striking distance.
Best Bet: Miami +7.5 -110
There is no easy way through Indiana’s defense, but there is a path of least resistance. The Hoosiers stack up extremely well against the run; however, we’ve seen some teams succeed in throwing the ball. Miami went out and got Carson Beck in the transfer portal last year for this exact reason. It’s time for Beck to show the football world what he’s made of.
Beck has been incredibly efficient this season. The senior has thrown for 3,581 yards and 29 touchdowns while completing 73.3% of his throws. He hasn’t been tasked with single-handedly leading the Canes to the National Championship, but they wouldn’t be here without him. Beck engineered a game-winning drive in the waning moments of the semifinal, clinching the win on a three-yard touchdown run. Mobility is an asset, but Beck will need to throw the ball to keep Miami in the National Championship Game.
Indiana ranks among the top-tier pass defenses. Through 15 games, they’ve held opponents to 196.5 passing yards per game. Still, that number is trending in the opposite direction. While somewhat out of necessity, two of their last three opponents have eclipsed 250 passing yards, yielding a three-game running average of 239.7. Assuredly, Carson Beck will add to those woes at Hard Rock Stadium.
If the game script plays out as anticipated, and the Hoosiers play with the lead, Miami will have no choice but to throw the ball more frequently. Even if that isn’t the case, the Hurricanes would be wise to unleash Beck to keep the chains moving. The Hurricanes’ quarterback has a very attainable passing yards prop, but it’s worth going more exotic to maximize value.
Best Bet: Carson Beck to Record 250+ Passing Yards +240
National Championship Best Bets: (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (1) Indiana Hoosiers
- Miami +7.5 -110
- Carson Beck to Record 250+ Passing Yards +240
Tonight’s National Championship Game will be one for the ages. The odds are stacked against the Hurricanes, and we expect them to respond with a season-best effort. With that, we’re taking the points with Miami and backing Carson Beck to reach 250 passing yards.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
