There are only three games left in the NFL season. Thankfully, we’re expecting some sensational performances across that limited schedule. Four teams are left standing, with the most intense matchups unfolding over Championship Weekend. The conference showdowns kick off with an early clash between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos.
Bo Nix’s absence has negatively impacted the Broncos’ outlook. Can they overcome the odds and punch their way into Super Bowl LX?
Where to Watch New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
- Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High
- Location: Denver, CO
- Where to Watch: CBS
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
- Spread: NE -4.5 (-115) | DEN +4.5 (-105)
- Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
- Moneyline: NE -240 | DEN +200
Upon the news of Nix’s ankle injury, the betting market took a firm stance against the Broncos. Denver opened as high as +7.5 at some shops. After re-adjusting, the AFC West champs were hovering closer to +5.5, but bettors are still hammering the hosts in the AFC Championship Game. This line has drifted further away from the Patriots, but we like their chances of covering the spread at Mile High.
New England has been unstoppable in the closing stages of the 2025 campaign, a trend that has persisted since the first month of the season. The Patriots are an astounding 15-1 since the end of September, covering the spread in each of their last five games. Over that stretch, their average margin of victory is 17.8 points, including double-digit wins in each of their playoff games.
More importantly, that success is propped up by elite underlying metrics. New England has held its previous three opponents to a combined 628 yards or 209.3 yards per game. At the same time, the AFC East champs have put up 1,086 yards, while producing a Super Bowl-worthy +2.6 net yards per play.
Conversely, the Broncos are trending in the opposite direction. Their +1.1 net yards per play has fallen to +0.44 over their last three, getting out-gained 449 to 349 in the Divisional Round.
Bo Nix is forced to watch from the sidelines in this one, and his absence is too big a hurdle to overcome. New England’s unforgiving approach has translated to on-field and betting domination. At the current price, we’re backing the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
Best Bet: Patriots -4.5 -115
The Patriots’ balanced offensive attack has been one of the hallmarks of their success this season. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have taken turns leading the Pats’ backfield. We’re betting the rookie steps up in the AFC Championship Game and annihilates the Broncos’ defense.
Granted, Henderson hasn’t been as productive in the playoffs. Through two games, the Ohio State product has churned out just 52 yards on 21 touches, representing a steep departure from what we saw from him over the final few weeks of the regular season. Henderson had eclipsed 50 rushing yards in nine of his last 10 regular season games, a standard he should get back to in Denver.
As good as the Broncos are defensively, they have been completely unable to defend the run in recent outings. Three of their last five opponents have eclipsed 113 rushing yards, with five different players reaching at least 50 yards. More concerningly, that increase has come despite fewer rushing attempts. Opponents are up to 4.7 yards per carry across that sample, jumping to 5.0 over the Broncos’ last three, both of which represent a significant departure from their regular season average of 3.9.
As implied from the betting line, we’re counting on the Patriots playing with the lead throughout most of the AFC Championship Game. Naturally, that points us toward an emphasized rushing attack out of the backfield. TreVeyon Henderson should remain the go-to running back in Denver, and we’re betting he reaches the 50-yard plateau with relative ease.
Best Bet: TreVeyon Henderson to Record 50+ Rushing Yards +205
New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos: AFC Championship Game Best Bets
- Patriots -4.5 -115
- TreVeyon Henderson to Record 50+ Passing Yards +205
We’re loading up on two plus-ev plays ahead of the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots are the deserving favorites and should have no problem covering the number at Mile High. Additionally, TreVeyon Henderson is a prime bounce-back candidate, and is positioned to surpass 50 rushing yards.
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