Forgive me if you’ve heard this before – Arch Manning is a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. His position this offseason is analogous to what we saw last year. The Texas Longhorns’ quarterback is installed as the betting favorite and earning a significant portion of the market share.
As we saw in 2025, Manning wasn’t up to the task. Can the quarterback prodigy live up to the billing in his junior season? Which players have the best shot of usurping him for college football’s most notable personal distinction?
Arch Manning
Manning dipped his toes in the college football waters back in 2024, but dove head first and sunk like a rock to open last season. The Louisiana native threw picks in the first three games and five interceptions through the first five. Three losses later, the Longhorns were relegated from playoff contention and Manning’s Heisman dreams evaporated.
Despite his sophomore struggles, there’s still plenty to like about Manning’s Heisman aspirations in 2026. He threw for 328 or more yards in three of his last six starts, averaging 285.7 yards per game over that stretch. More importantly, Manning had a vastly improved 14-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio to close out the campaign.
It’s not surprising that bettors have saddled up on Manning again. He leads BetMGM in terms ticket count and handle, earning respective benchmarks of 14.0% and 21.7%. That split signals sharp involvement and moved Manning to the top of the betting charts (+750). This time we expect Manning to live up to the billing.
CJ Carr
CJ Carr stepped onto the gridiron as a freshman, earning the first two starts of his career versus ranked opponents. While he suffered defeat in both of those contests, we got a glimpse of just how great Carr could be. He maintained that standard throughout his 2025 season, and now enters the upcoming campaign as the co-favorite in Heisman betting.
While Carr finished below Manning in several statistical categories last season, there are a few considerations worth making. First, his Notre Dame Fighting Irish declined a bowl game berth after being snubbed from the College Football Playoffs. Secondly, Carr was used sparingly in a few contests, after the Irish built commanding leads. He may not have cracked 3,000 passing yards or 30 passing touchdowns, but Carr played fewer snaps and less games than most of his counterparts.
Notre Dame wants to atone for last year’s missteps, and Carr is the guy to lead them back to the postseason. His 10.9% ticket count and 11.1% handle support substantive betting involvement from public and sharp bettors alike. This year’s Heisman Trophy betting could be a two-horse race from start to finish.
Julian Sayin
Manning and Carr will tangle throughout the campaign, but don’t write Julian Sayin out of this competition just yet. The Ohio State Buckeyes’ pivot was one of the most dominant players in the country last year, and we expect more of the same in 2026.
Sayin finished among the top quarterbacks in every statistical category. He threw for the tenth-most years (3,610), the fourth-most touchdowns (32), and finished with the third-best QBR (88.4). Moreover, he enjoyed more team success than any other player on this list, leading his Buckeyes to a 12-0 record before fizzling out in the Big Ten Championship Game and CFP.
Sayin is a more distant +1100, but we wouldn’t be surprised if he closes that gap once the season gets started. He’s become a more publicly-backed candidate, but Sayin will be ready to produce again as a junior.
Dante Moore
The Oregon Ducks have cemented their position as a perennial favorite in college football. Their latest ascent was facilitated by Dante Moore, who has one of the premier passers in one of the most daunting conferences. Moore will bolster his Heisman Trophy odds with a strong start to the upcoming season.
Moore got better as the season progressed. He threw for over 3,500 yards, adding 30 touchdowns and 519 passing yards in the playoffs. Further, he threw for 257 or more yards in five of his last six starts, yielding a per game average of 280.2 yards per game.
If Moore maintains his playoff standard throughout the entire campaign, he will shoot to the top of the odds board. For now, plenty of bettors see value in backing him as a Heisman candidate, as evidenced by his 6.9% ticket count and 8.7% handle.
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