The MLB season is a mountain to climb. Teams can’t sprint to the finish or draft behind a frontrunner before making their move. Each step takes thoughtfulness and it’s a matter of maximizing production while minimizing exertion to get into the playoffs. Some teams execute that strategy better than others, but even the best have a misstep here and there which sets them back.
The New York Yankees find themselves in that exact position, needing to tether their ropes as they offset the loss of Aaron Judge. The AL MVP favorite is presumed to miss the next four-to-six weeks with a rib injury, forcing the Yankees to ratchet in their anchors as they set their sights on the peak.
The betting odds already reflect New York’s loss. Can the Bronx Bombers continue their ascent without their captain?
Judge’s Continued Dominance
While he’s had a tepid few weeks, Judge remains one of the premier players in all of baseball. He sits among the league leaders in every statistical category, putting up 17 home runs, 43 runs, 38 RBI, albeit with a slightly deflated .908 OPS. Moreover, those stats were all expected to rise given his elite analytics profile. Judge sits in the 98th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, barrel rate, and batting run value.
Those are mammoth values that are not easily replaced. Nor does that factor in that Judge resides in one of the more important defensive positions in right field. The Yankees need everyone to step up in his absence, but there are a few players who could be asked to do more over the coming weeks.
Ben Rice Will Step Into the Spotlight
Judge casts a towering shadow in the Big Apple. But even before he went down with the rib injury, Ben Rice was stepping up his contributions. The Yankees’ designated hitter/first baseman outpaces Judge in OPS, producing an MVP-worthy 1.031 mark. More importantly, he’s translated that to sustainable on-field production.
Through 57 games, two fewer than Judge, Rice outpaces his teammate in runs (46) and RBI (44), while tying him in home runs (17). At the same time Rice has 34 extra-base hits to Judge’s 27, suggesting that Rice has been the catalyst that is driving New York’s run production.
Now, Rice will be tested. Without Judge insulating him in the lineup, Rice will need to continue to deliver those elite results and lift the Yankees’ offense.
Platoon in Right Field
Judge was the everyday right fielder among a small cast of Yankees’ outfielders. Cody Bellinger assumes left field, with Trent Grisham patrolling center. Given his experience, Bellinger is a logical replacement to move over to right to minimize the defensive impact of Judge’s absence. However, that hasn’t been the case.
Utility-man Jose Caballero stood in for two of three versus the Guardians, with Max Schuemann closing out the series finale. Amed Rosario is another utility player who could earn a few reps, but for the time being, it appears that Caballero will take over primary defensive responsibilities in right.
Yankees’ Pitchers Need to Offset the Loss
New York’s starting rotation was already operating at a deficit. Max Fried has been shelved since the middle of May with an elbow injury and Clarke Schmidt hasn’t pitched since last July after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That leaves the Yankees with a relatively untested group of journeymen and young guns who will need to step up to keep New York competitive.
That task becomes immeasurably easier by the return of Gerrit Cole. The former Cy Young winner returned to the lineup at the end of May, quickly returning to form. Cole didn’t allow a run in any of his first two starts, before getting tagged for four against the Guardians last time out. He’s reclaimed his position as the staff ace, and now Cole must put the Yankees on his back every five games to alleviate the offensive concerns.
Betting Implications
The long-term impact of Judge’s short-term absence remains positive. Based on BetMGM’s latest odds, the Yankees’ remain the favorite to reign atop the American League.
They are priced as +200 chalk to represent the AL in the World Series, sitting well clear of the Seattle Mariners (+360) and Tampa Bay Rays (+750). Likewise, they are the second favorites to win it all, sitting marginally behind the Dodgers. Conversely, the price continues to drop on New York to claim their third division title in five years.
As it stands, the Yankees are installed as -155 chalk to win the AL East, a substantive decrease from their previous high of -235. More concerningly, they’ve been usurped in ticket count and handle. The Baltimore Orioles have become the public staple at 23.9% ticket count, with the Rays the hefty leaders in terms of handle at 37.4%.
While the Yankees are the definitive favorites in AL Pennant and World Series future betting, bettors have taken a firm stance against them in the short-term. The longer Judge remains out, the more those odds will drop.
Final Thoughts
Most MLB teams are almost half-way up the mountain, and some climbers sit further ahead than others. The Yankees need to avoid resting on their laurels in Judge’s absence, or they risk getting past by teams they will need to climb over in the latter stages of the campaign.
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