A few weeks ago, it seemed like a mere formality that Aaron Judge would continue his reign as MVP; however, a rib injury has cast doubt on his ability to return to form and capture his fourth MVP trophy in five years.
With the Yankees’ slugger on the shelf for the foreseeable future, several players have moved to the top of the betting board. A few familiar faces are in the running, but this year’s winner could come down to two relative unknowns.
Let’s take a look at the betting odds and see who’s on top!
Yordan Alvarez (+110)
Only Shohei Ohtani can claim the distinction of being named MVP while playing primarily as a designated hitter. If things go to plan, Yordan Alvarez will become just the second player in MLB history to earn that honor.
Alvarez continues to mash for the Astros. The defected Cuban leads the league in nearly every category, setting the pace in hits (89), home runs (24), batting average (.325), slugging percentage (.642), and OPS (1.070). All of that without considering his 50 runs (11th-most) or 55 RBI (fourth-most).
The scariest part about Alvarez’s profile is that he’s still operating below expected values. According the Baseball Savant, the Astros’ slugger has an expected batting average of .348 and expected slugging percentage of .728. Even if he doesn’t reach those lofty benchmarks and just maintains his current production, there aren’t many players who could catch Alvarez as the AL MVP.
The betting market is firm on Alvarez’s chances, staking him to the betting lead as we approach the halfway point of the season. While he’s only accounted for 4.1% of the tickets and 4.2% of the handle, there’s no disputing the legitimacy of Alvarez’s MVP candidacy.
Bobby Witt Jr. (+340)
For years, Bobby Witt Jr. has been waiting in the wings as the next superstar to take up the AL MVP mantle. Assuredly, he has superior value on defense and on the base paths. Still, he needs to step up his offensive production if he hopes to catch Alavarez for this year’s crown.
Witt Jr. is a prototypical shortstop. He is one of the best defenders in the game, using his contact and base running skills at the top of the lineup. Despite ranking second in the league with 88 hits, he sits almost 200 points shy of Alavarez in slugging percentage (.465). Moreover, his 40 runs and 32 RBI are well shy of the league lead in both categories.
The betting public has embraced Witt Jr. as the top horse in this race. With 15.6% ticket count and 14.7% handle, we can infer that it’s mostly small wagers that are coming in on the Royals’ franchise cornerstone. The most telling aspect of Wiit’s resume, though, is that his odds dropped after the Judge injury. Formerly a +145 frontrunner, Witt Jr. now sits a more distant +340.
It’s too early to rule him out, but Witt Jr. needs to amplify production.
Julio Rodriguez (+2500)
Like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez’s MVP odds are trending in the wrong direction. Conversely, the Mariners’ stud center fielder is backed by a large portion of sharp money.
At the start of the season, J-Rod was priced as a +1200 contender. Since then, his odds have dropped to the +2000 range before settling in at +2500 more recently. Throughout that time, Rodriguez has received a steady stream of sharp support. His 17.6% handle is more than triple his 5.0% ticket share, indicating a wider belief among large money wagers that he will eventually turn it on.
Rodriguez remains a steadying defensive presence, albeit with more modest offensive metrics. His .739 OPS is nowhere near MVP status, and only 28 of his 70 hits have gone for extra bases. Still, if he climbs up to his expected slugging percentage of .463, we could see Rodriguez shoot up the odds board before the end of the season.
Nick Kurtz (+360)
It’s easy to look past the homeless Athletics.
Doing so could rob bettors of several ideal betting opportunities. Not only are the A’s in contention in the AL West, but Nick Kurtz has emerged as a legitimate MVP threat.
Kurtz is doing big things out west. In just his second season in the bigs, the Athletics first baseman has 78 hits, 18 homers, 54 runs scored, and 57 RBI. More importantly, those stats are all grounded in an elite analytics profile. The young stud sits in the 97th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed.
Sharp bettors have already taken note of Kurtz’s accomplishments. His 7.9% handle is double is 4.0% ticket count. Wary of potential exposure, BetMGM has continued to increase Kurtz’s MVP odds throughout the season.
It’s been decades since anyone took the Athletics seriously, but it appears that they are finally trending positively ahead of their move to Las Vegas. What better way to capture their new city’s attention than with a deep playoff run spurred by an MVP.
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