As much as we love the action on the field, the intrigue and drama of the NFL Draft is virtually unmatched. Every year, we see unexpected names called, surprise last minute deals, and a plethora of betting money change hands in the lead up to the big day. This year was no exception, as Thursday’s first-round saw several unpredictable swings throughout the night.
We’ve got BetMGM’s betting data from the event, and we’re diving in to see just how crazy the first night of the 2026 NFL Draft was.
Fernando Mendoza – First Overall
The insanity of the evening is captured in Fernando Mendoza’s crowning as the Las Vegas Raiders’ franchise quarterback. Albeit, we’ll have to point the lens further back to see just how unexpected his ascent was.
At the start of the 2025 college football season, Mendoza was a wild card prospect. He was priced at a distant +10000 to hear his name called first overall, marking one of the most surprising achievements in recent his history.
We know how the story ends. Mendoza led the Indiana Hoosiers to a perfect season, National Championship, and Heisman Trophy, cementing his position as the top prospect on the board. By the time he walked to the podium to put on his Raiders’ hat, Mendoza had collected 66% of the betting handle to be the first-overall selection, closing as a chalky -10000 favorite.
Things only got stranger from there.
David Bailey vs. Arvell Reese
Whether they like it or not, David Bailey and Arvell Reese are tidally locked as rivals for the rest of their careers. Reese was widely expected to be the second name off the board in Pittsburgh, closing as high as -425 at some shops. By the time the Jets made their selection, Bailey was a distant +175 underdog to hear his name called. The Jets obviously liked what they saw in Bailey, making him the unexpected second-overall selection, while cashing tickets for several sharp bettors.
That was just the start of the slide for Arvell Reese. The Cardinals and Titans passed on the hulking off-ball linebacker, who was widely viewed as the best defensive prospect in the draft. It wouldn’t be until the Giants stepped up at the five spot that Reese would hear his name called. There, he was a +2000 longshot to go to the Big Apple.
Few people expected Bailey to go second overall, and even fewer could have predicted Reese’s unceremonious fall to fifth. Clearly, there was money to be made early in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Rest of the Top 5
Picks three and four were equally as unexpected. The Cardinals could have gone in a number of directions. Some pundits predicted they would select Arvell Reese, with most others suggesting that an offensive lineman would be the best choice. Arizona defied the odds, adding Jeremiyah Love as its premier running back moving forward.
Love’s odds of going third overall increased as we approached the draft. Formerly a plus-money contender, the Notre Dame running back closed as a -110 frontrunner.
The same can’t be said about Carnell Tate’s selection at fourth overall. The Ohio State receiver was among a deep class of wideouts, but there was no consensus on who would be the first name called. It was even more unlikely that Tate would end up in Tennesee. When the Titans made their selection, Tate was priced at a whopping +5000.
The Titans needed to add more weapons to Cam Ward’s repertoire, but no one predicted Carnell Tate would be their first option.
More Delirium in the Top 10
Little did we know that would just be kicking off the delirium of the first round. BetMGM saw more unexpected results throughout the rest of the draft, particularly in the Top 10.
Most shockingly, the Chiefs made a surprise move up the board, targeting Mansoor Delane with the sixth pick. While it cost them some draft capital, KC was happy to add to its secondary. BetMGM was probably less enthused, as Delane closed at +10000 to be drafted sixth.
Jordyn Tyson was the only somewhat expected result in the Top 10. The Arizona State receiver was +220 to go to the Saints, representing the shortest odds on the board among those five picks. Sonny Styles was +500 to go seventh, with Spencer Fano and Francis Mauigoa priced at +700 and +750, respectively, in their slots.
Most Bet Props
Player position remains a popular proposition among sports bettors, but the action was flowing in several markets on draft day.
Not surprisingly, Fernando Mendoza was the public bet to make ahead of Thursday’s event. He led ticket count by a wide margin, becoming the consensus number one pick months in advance. Coincidentally, David Bailey and Arvell Reese share the distinction of being the second and third-most bet props. The betting public was spot on, with ‘over 1.5 quarterbacks selected in the first-round’ collecting the fourth-most tickets, and cashing when the Rams chose Ty Simpson 13th overall.
Final Thoughts
This was just the tip of the betting iceberg. We have six more rounds to look forward to throughout the weekend, with BetMGM offering ample betting opportunities for those looking to get in on the action. Surely, there will be more betting delirium as teams look to build their winning rosters for years to come.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
