Why Wouldn’t Slots Lower Pays After a Big Win?

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Brian Christopher thinking

We don’t know many people who were into statistics when going to school. There are certainly those out there who found a passion in it (among them those who create the math for slot machines), but many of us never really got into it. 

So it’s natural that questions resulting from that sort of thing will arise, such as the following:

If machines have return to player percentages, if a machine just hit big or gave a huge jackpot, wouldn’t that mean it wouldn’t pay as much in the near term?

Jim H.

There’s two things to keep in mind that helps to wrap our head around why a slot could pay big again right after a big hit.

First, for slots to reach that payback percentage, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. Slots are expected to deviate from the norm in the short term, both positive and negative. That’s part of what makes it more fun than a 90 percent slot machine always returning 90 cents every time you do a $1 spin.

The other thing is those big payouts are built in to that return to player percentage, meaning it knows it’s going to pay those out and even despite those payouts still achieve, over time, that payback percentage. So it doesn’t need to course correct at all, as those big payouts are  a deliberate part of the path to reach that point.

So the slot doesn’t need to do any course correcting – it’s already built in. The randomness is within a range of outcomes, and that range of outcomes is designed to achieve the return to player it’s designed to offer.

This means you don’t have to worry about moving slots if you win big – you have the same chances of winning big on the very next spin, so you can play on if you wish. But feel free to move if that’s your preference – there’s nothing wrong with locking in a profit either.

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